◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. Pentagon prepares for potential Iran strikes as Trump weighs timing; tanker hit near Qatar
  2. Samsung projects record $80B profit on AI chip boom, highest quarterly for tech
  3. Mexican Peso holds firm as FOMC Minutes signal further rate hikes · 2 sources
  4. Gold falls to two-month low near $4,100 on stronger US Dollar · 2 sources
  5. Trump awarding medals to Musk, Dell, Nadella and other tech execs at science summit · 2 sources

Markets 101

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  • USD/MXN holds near 17.98 after retreating from 18.43 high
  • September Fed hike narrowed Mexico's interest-rate advantage, exacerbating Peso sell-off
  • Banxico economists see rates holding at 6.50% through 2027
  • Fed members expect another hike by year-end; money markets show 81% chance of no hike this month
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  • USD/JPY fell back to 158.00 from 158.50 high after Japan pay data
  • Japanese real wages rose 1.5% YoY in August, eighth straight gain
  • Nominal pay beat forecast at 3.8% YoY but slowed from July
  • BoJ futures price ~17% odds for October hike, ~71% for December
  • Japan officials called yen undervalued, promised food tax cut without new bonds
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  • AUD/USD fell 0.29% to 0.6963 after Fed minutes showed scope for year-end hike
  • Fed minutes split on September move; several participants see policy not restrictive
  • Money markets price 78% chance of December 25bp rate hike
  • DXY rose 0.40% to 102.24; US Treasury yields tumbled
  • Oil prices rose amid Iranian attacks in Strait of Hormuz
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  • Surging Treasury yields beginning to impact overlooked stock market segments
  • Previously winning stocks being affected by rising yield environment
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  • EUR/USD slips toward 17-month low as French 10-year yields rise after Tuesday's relief
  • Speculators hold record 301K short Euro contracts (~€38B equivalent) in week to Sept 29
  • European gas storage at 71.5% full vs 82.6% a year ago; Dutch benchmark price up 120%
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  • Rising borrowing costs dividing market: rate-sensitive sectors vs AI companies
  • 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.365%, highest since April 2002
  • AI/data center companies insulated from higher rates; SpaceX seeking $40B for Nvidia chips
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  • GBP/USD slips to 1.3200, floor of ten-session range, as bond yields climb
  • US 10-year Treasury yield clears at 5.30%, highest at auction since November 2000
  • Fed minutes show all 19 officials backed September hike, most see another hike appropriate by year-end
  • UK 30-year gilt yield back above 6% for first time since 1998
  • BoE meets November 5, futures price ~80% chance of November hike
  • The 2026 ISDA FX Definitions are in the implementation phase, transitioning from the 1998 definitions.
  • The new definitions create a single, digital framework with key substantive changes, including default disruption events and automated FX options exercise.
  • SWIFT rulebook changes are expected over summer, with a full transition to the 2026 FX Definitions by November 2027.
  • Implementation materials are being provided to firms, and dealer outreach is planned to support the transition.
  • Future discussions include legal issues related to AI in FX markets and upcoming stablecoin policy papers.
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  • USD/CNH confined to narrow intraday band around 6.7000, touched 6.7056 high and 6.6997 low
  • Very short-term tone slightly firmer but likely stays within 6.7000/6.7100 range
  • 1-3 week view: range trading between 6.6950 and 6.7270 expected to continue
  • 1-3 month view: gradual drift lower if key resistance near 6.7815 holds

Macro/Economy 49

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  • IMF reached staff-level agreement potentially unlocking $1.21 billion
  • ~$1bn under Extended Fund Facility, $210mn under Resilience and Sustainability Facility
  • Pakistan remains reliant on external financing for reserves and debt repayments
  • IMF cites risks from geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices, tighter global conditions
  • EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic meets Chinese Commerce Minister to address €1bn daily trade deficit
  • Talks cover rare earth and critical mineral export restrictions
  • EU lawmakers called for more assertive trade policy; China vows resolute response
  • Germany and France propose new EU trade weapon to respond to economic aggression within days
  • EU wants tangible results by October as trade imbalance reaches tipping point
  • China's Q3 GDP estimated to grow 4.4% year-on-year, marginally above the previous quarter.
  • Growth remains below the official annual target of around 5%.
  • Strong exports and AI-related sectors provided some economic support.
  • Continued sluggishness in real estate and consumer spending offset positive factors.
  • India aims to leverage AI disruption to foster job growth, moving beyond potential negative impacts.
  • The economic trajectory is framed as shifting from a 'K-shaped' disruption to a 'J-curve' opportunity with AI integration.
  • Timely and effective policy intervention is crucial within a narrow window to realize AI's benefits for employment.
  • Analysis provided by Sonal Varma, Nomura's Chief Economist for Asia excluding Japan.
  • China has tightened regulations on offshore trusts and asset movement overseas.
  • The new rules are impacting China's wealthy individuals seeking to move assets.
  • Singapore, a major Southeast Asian financial hub, is experiencing repercussions from these changes.
  • The measures aim to prevent capital outflow and overhaul tax structures.
  • Tokyo experienced 37 consecutive days of rain, an unusually long streak.
  • The prolonged rainfall has led to a significant increase in fresh vegetable prices.
  • Severe weather events, including heat waves and rain, are disrupting Japan's economy.
  • Japanese businesses and the government are struggling to adapt to intensifying climate change effects.
  • Other regions in Japan are facing water shortages, impacting operations for companies like Toyota.

Central Banks 17

Energy/Oil 22

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  • 37% of Japanese companies cite crude oil market volatility as top earnings risk in Reuters survey
  • FX fluctuations ranked second at 21%, rising interest rates third at 19%
  • US-Israeli war on Iran has constrained crude supply, driving up energy costs
  • Japan imports 94% of crude oil from Middle East; BoJ raised rates to 31-year high last month
  • Many firms also see AI-related investment sustainability as potential earnings risk
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  • Global oil stocks nearly exhausted as Iran war enters eighth month
  • World has few buffers to cushion supply shock from Middle East conflict
  • Market more vulnerable to next supply shock despite crude supply at pre-war levels
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  • Executive order allows truckers to use red-dyed off-road diesel on highways without federal penalties
  • Tax payment deferred to end of year; Treasury may eliminate obligation but uncertain
  • Federal tax is 24.4 cents/gallon; state taxes average 35.5 cents/gallon and cannot be deferred
  • Diesel futures rose 1% despite order; analysts say impact on prices will be minimal
  • Analysts cite refinery bottleneck and geopolitical supply issues as root cause of high prices
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  • Trump using tariff threats to pressure foreign partners into backing Alaska LNG
  • South Korea at centre of financing effort for one of America's most expensive energy developments
  • Project discussed for decades has regained momentum under Trump administration

Gold/Metals 20

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  • Gold price drops to around $4,110, near two-month low
  • Stronger USD and elevated US Treasury yields weigh on gold
  • Fed Minutes show policymakers backed September rate hike, expect another by year-end
  • Fed's Schmid flags AI as major inflation driver, signals more rate tightening
  • PBoC buying and ETF inflows provide support despite CTA selling pressure

Crypto 39

  • BTCC Exchange has launched a refreshed Trust Center.
  • The initiative underscores BTCC's 15-year operational history in the crypto trading space.
  • Alex Hung is noted in connection with the exchange's long-standing commitment to trust.

Geopolitics 38

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  • Pentagon told CENTCOM to prepare for resuming major combat operations in Iran
  • Trump considering strikes before US midterm elections, possibly before Israeli elections
  • UKMTO: tanker struck by projectiles ~51 nautical miles north of Qatar with casualties
  • Saudi-led coalition attacked 80+ Houthi military sites across Yemen
  • WTI down 1.05% on the day at $88.25
  • UNIFIL post near Kfar Shouba targeted by small arms fire on Wednesday morning
  • No casualties reported, incident under investigation
  • Attack occurs as UN mandate expires December 31 under US/Israel pressure
  • UNIFIL has 7,500 peacekeepers from around 50 countries in Southern Lebanon
  • North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged 'invariable support' for Russia in a birthday letter to President Vladimir Putin.
  • Kim hailed Moscow's war in Ukraine as 'sacred' and expressed conviction in Russia's ultimate victory.
  • North Korea has become a key Russian ally since the 2022 Ukraine invasion, reportedly sending troops in exchange for economic benefits and military technology.
  • South Korea's spy agency estimated 2,000 North Korean troops killed in the war, with a more recent assessment putting casualties (killed or wounded) at around 6,000.
  • The letter follows strained South Korea-Ukraine relations after Kyiv disclosed the transfer of captured North Korean soldiers to Seoul.
  • Trump says he deserves Nobel Peace Prize but doubts he'll receive it
  • Norwegian Nobel Committee to announce 2026 award on Friday
  • Trump has yet to broker peace in Ukraine despite claiming he should win
  • Former Anthropic/OpenAI researcher Jacob Coxon claims 90% certainty China has spies in US AI companies
  • Allegation made without providing evidence on PBD Podcast
  • Coxon argues China could steal advances and close technological gap quickly
  • Greer reported $1.17M-$3.75M in cash, retirement accounts and investments in 2025 disclosure
  • Received $652,610 salary/bonus from King & Spalding in 2025
  • Cash holdings rose from $250K-$500K to $500K-$1M between disclosures
  • Coupang paid $10K honorarium in May 2024; Greer met company at USTR in April 2025
  • Meeting occurred during South Korea trade talks; ethics clearance unclear
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  • Private sector panel preparing letter to PM urging faster flood preparedness efforts
  • Panel includes business leaders calling for increased infrastructure investment
  • Letter follows recent flooding that caused significant damage
  • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered speech at Pnyx hill in Athens
  • Called on Europe to 'awaken from its long slumber' and rekindle Western democratic fire
  • Thousands protested in Rio against Flavio Bolsonaro advancing to Oct 25 runoff vs Lula
  • Flavio won first round with 47% vs Lula's 45%; neither reached 50% threshold
  • Protesters carried signs including 'No to the father, no to the son' and 'Dictatorship never again'
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  • Trump pressed Xi to roll back China's export curbs on Japan during meeting in Washington
  • Xi warned Trump about growing risks of Japanese militarism
  • Tokyo seeks to manage mounting pressure from Beijing
  • Bipartisan group asks lawmakers to pledge they'll accept midterm election results
  • Major AI companies lining up blockbuster debt deals to fund semiconductor chip purchases
  • FlyDubai co-pilot nearly carried out attack in July, discovered during investigation
  • Pro-Palestine university groups marched in London on October 7, the anniversary of the October 7 attacks
  • Police had called for postponement of the march, but groups proceeded with the demonstration
  • Al Jazeera reports the protests continued despite authorities' requests
  • New Clark City selected for Luzon Economic Corridor under US-led Pax Silica coalition
  • Project covers 4,000 acres in Clark special economic zone, Tarlac province
  • Concerns raised over energy/water resources and potential evictions of farmers, indigenous communities
  • Project seen as counterpart to China-led World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization
  • Framework deal expected at ASEAN summit during Trump's planned Manila visit
  • Trump said US does not think death of Russian lab worker from suspected plague is a bioweapon
  • Planned to call Putin on his birthday to discuss the plague-related incident
  • Nearly 200 people placed under medical observation in Irkutsk region after female researcher fell ill and died
  • Trump acknowledged both China and Russia have not provided much information

Tech/AI 41

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  • Estimated operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($74B) in Q3, world first for tech company
  • Revenue up 127% to 195 trillion won; fourth straight quarter of record profit
  • Memory chip shortage to persist through 2028 amid AI infrastructure demand
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  • Trump awarding National Medal of Science to Musk, Brin, Huang, Su
  • Dell and Nadella receiving National Medal of Technology and Innovation
  • All recipients have financially contributed to Trump or Republican campaigns
  • Event follows AI-focused White House lunch with tech leaders
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  • Apollo Capital Management leading discussions to help SpaceX finance $40B Nvidia GPU purchase
  • Deal expected to use GPUs as collateral; relies on investment-grade debt market
  • SpaceX's Memphis data center runs 230,000 Nvidia chips; plans to reach 1.21M by late December
  • SpaceX already has compute deals with Google, Anthropic, Reflection AI and Cursor
  • Company reported ~$40B debt in Q2; existing debt trades near junk bond levels
  • Taiwan's foreign minister launched a new quasi-diplomatic mission in Arizona during a three-day U.S. visit.
  • The new office, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Phoenix, aims to expand Taiwan's reach.
  • The move coincides with Taiwan's rapid expansion of semiconductor investment in the United States.
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  • Taiwanese companies are increasing overseas investment to meet surging demand for AI computing infrastructure.
  • Investment is primarily concentrated in the U.S. and Southeast Asia.
  • The move aims to build more robust supply chains for AI server production.
  • TSMC is among the key players driving this expansion.
  • Mecka AI raised $60M Series B led by Sequoia, with Nvidia, Microsoft M12 participation
  • Startup collects human motion data to train humanoid robots
  • Founded in 2024, aims to be Scale AI for robotics sector
  • Pays people to record everyday tasks wearing body sensors and using smartphones
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  • Endeavor Catalyst closes $320M fifth fund, total AUM over $850M
  • 90% of investments outside US; Europe fastest-growing region
  • Top holdings: ElevenLabs ($22B), Bending Spoons ($26B), Reflection AI ($25B)
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  • New Constructs calls Anthropic IPO 'most ridiculous IPO of 2026'
  • Analyst values company at $150B vs target $2T valuation
  • Anthropic posted $42B net loss on $4.6B revenue in 2025
  • Firm says company would need double Nvidia's profit to justify valuation
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  • Developer Brandon Thomas created open-source replacements for Adobe's seven apps using Rust/AI
  • Artcraft debuted suite mimicking Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere, Lightroom, After Effects, InDesign, Acrobat Pro
  • Apps currently in early alpha stage with many shortcomings
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  • Tech stocks have fallen sharply as rising rates impact valuations
  • Former market darlings no longer commanding previous premium multiples
  • Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee proposes an 'AI city brain' to integrate data across public services.
  • The system aims to enhance risk management and service coordination in transport, public works, and emergency response.
  • A critical question is raised regarding the AI's capacity to truly understand how the city's people communicate.
  • Towa, a Japanese chipmaking device manufacturer, will construct a new plant for molding equipment.
  • The plant will produce equipment used in advanced semiconductors.
  • Located near its headquarters in Kyoto, Japan, the initiative aims to establish a domestic supply framework.
  • The move is intended to address economic security concerns within the semiconductor industry.

Companies 7

  • TikTok allegedly gave thousands of users non-functional versions of 'Algo Refresh' safety feature in 2023
  • Users believed they activated the feature but feeds did not change, unlike those with working version
  • Internal product manager flagged the placebo test as misleading, saying it conflicts with algorithm transparency
  • TikTok also allegedly turned off safety features for some users; a teen boy in test subsequently committed suicide
  • New York AG's lawsuit part of more than two dozen state suits accusing TikTok of addicting children
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  • Honda Motor will push back mass production of its next-generation hybrid vehicles in North America.
  • The overhauled CR-V hybrid SUV's mass production is delayed to at least April 2027.
  • The delay affects production in the U.S. and Canada, including the Indiana plant.
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  • Q3 operating profit rose 25.7% to 756 billion won, beating 309 billion won forecast
  • Revenue likely up 59% to 9.6 trillion won; profit included US IRA tax credits
  • Better-than-expected profit due to one-off compensation from North American automaker
  • Expanding ESS business to offset weak EV demand; AI data centers driving growth
  • ESS business remains loss-making; turnaround timing uncertain
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  • Maggie Gauger, Athleta CEO since 2024, joins Lululemon as president and chief product officer, a newly created role
  • Lululemon also appoints Joseph Godsey as COO; chief brand officer Neubergie and supply chain chief Dagnese leaving in November
  • Move marks latest executive shakeup in competitive athleisure space; Lululemon has seen over a year of sales disappointments
  • Lululemon also searching for chief brand officer, chief communications officer and chief technology officer
  • Gap says Athleta brand CMO Erika Everett will oversee CEO role in interim
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  • Raised adjusted EPS guidance to $1.54-$1.56 from $1.46-$1.52, boosted by tariff refunds
  • Lowered net revenue growth guidance to 7% from 7-7.5% previously
  • Q3 revenue rose 4% to $1.61B vs $1.62B expected; operating margin improved to 13.8% from 10.8%
  • Tariff refunds contributed 4.9% to operating margin and 16 cents to EPS
  • Americas revenue up 4% but US sales down 1%; DTC sales roughly flat
  • All 7-Eleven stores in India have closed as of the end of September.
  • The stores were operated under a franchise agreement with the retail arm of Reliance Industries.
  • The deal with Japanese retailer Seven & i Holdings concludes after five years.
  • The closure occurs amidst intensifying competition within the Indian retail market.
  • AustralianSuper plans to significantly boost its private equity investment in Asia.
  • The pension fund will focus its increased investments on Japan, India, and South Korea.
  • This move is part of a broader strategy by AustralianSuper to expand its presence in the Asian region.
  • Australian pension funds are seeking higher returns in Asia as domestic markets mature.

Thai Markets 10

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  • Thai PM Anutin says negotiations on 'last paragraph', agreement expected next month
  • Could be signed during ASEAN Summit Nov 16-18 or APEC meetings Nov 18-19
  • Framework reduced tariff from 36% to 19%; Thailand pledges to buy more US energy, agriculture, aircraft
  • USTR imposed 12.5% forced labor tariff; structural overcapacity investigation ongoing
  • Thailand aims to keep overall tariff burden around 19% benchmark
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  • Investment Analysts Association forecasts SET index to finish at 1,680 points by year-end
  • Key drivers: AI technology investment, foreign fund inflows, listed-company earnings, domestic economic recovery
  • SET index expected to range between 1,386-1,735 points in 2025
  • Strong foreign fund inflows: 42.8% in energy, 10.1% in high-gamut hotels, 69.6% in alternative investments
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  • TAT reassessing high-season forecast due to Bangkok and eastern region flooding
  • Eastern hotel bookings down 2-3%, North-South tourism down 1-2%
  • Tourist arrivals to 5 eastern provinces fell 8.41% in peak season
  • South Korean and Malaysian tourists most affected by floods
  • PM prioritizing flood relief over economic stimulus measures
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  • Centara announces global payments partnership to expand transaction capabilities
  • Partnership expected to show 53% growth in hotel transactions in Asia Pacific
  • Projected to reach 96% transaction share in Asia Pacific region
  • Deal aims to support tourism and long-stay foreign visitors in Thailand
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  • Thailand floods expected to slightly affect domestic car sales in Q4
  • Consumers delaying purchases, dealerships face delivery disruptions - Mazda Sales Thailand
  • Flood impact compounds existing challenges in Thai automotive market
  • Mazda targets 56,000-96,000 unit sales in 2024 for Thailand
  • VEHM segment faces 4.7% decline in market share, VEB segment also impacted
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  • Phuket retail supply forecast to surge 30% to 601,819 sqm by 2029
  • Developers expanding projects to serve tourists, residents and long-stay foreigners
  • Current retail space at 464,036 sqm, projected to reach 601,819 sqm by 2029
  • Growth driven by tourism recovery and increased long-stay visitor demand
  • Phuket retail space increased 29.5% from 2022 to 520,000 sqm
  • Revenue Department drafting new investment promotion law to replace Board of Investment tax incentives
  • New law aims to shift from general tax incentives to skill-based incentives for target industries
  • Targets include eco-friendly businesses, high-value services, and AI technology sectors
  • Seeks to address Thailand's declining competitiveness in attracting foreign investment
  • OIC partnering with 67 life and non-life insurers to strengthen cyber-resilience
  • AI-powered cyber threats becoming more complex, requiring enhanced prevention and response
  • Focus areas include data analysis, incident response, and recovery capabilities
  • Initiative addresses growing digital risks facing Thailand's insurance sector
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  • Oil Fuel Fund deficit approaching 100 billion baht
  • Energy Ministry says borrowing from banks is last resort
  • Considering GPL and oil loan options to shore up fund
  • Fund has been loss-riddled; loss-making mechanism
  • Energy Ministry exploring solutions to stabilize fund

Other 7

  • Christa Pike woke up in hospital on Tuesday after being nearly disconnected from life support on Monday
  • Lawyers describe her as 'angry and confused' who does not recall the execution attempt
  • Tennessee Governor Bill Lee ordered halt to other executions; prison commissioner resigned
  • Pike was convicted in 1996 for murder of classmate, scheduled for lethal injection on Sept 30
  • IRS issued revenue ruling on Section 351 conversions allowing tax-free ETF transfers
  • Treasury/IRS also targeting 'novel investment fund strategies' using straddles, no-dividend approaches
  • Public comments sought by Oct 28; guidance may apply retroactively
  • Four UK wildlife animals selected for new banknotes: Atlantic puffin, barn owl, buff-tailed bumblebee, European hedgehog
  • Nearly 500,000 people responded to public consultation, the most in BoE history
  • First denomination from next series expected to launch in next few years
  • Nashville judge ordered Tennessee officials to preserve evidence from Christa Pike's failed execution
  • Evidence includes drugs, syringes, medical equipment and recordings
  • Pike's lawyers say two failed lethal-injection attempts amounted to unconstitutional cruel punishment
  • Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi airports handled 182 million passengers last year, 3x Hong Kong traffic
  • Dubai airport recorded 95.2 million passengers, highest ever for any airport
  • Gulf hub-and-spoke model redirects millions traveling between West and Asia through Gulf airports
  • First Test series in South Africa since 2018 'Sandpapergate' ball-tampering scandal begins Friday in Durban
  • Australia seeking to bounce back from surprise home Test defeat by Bangladesh
  • South Africa, WTC holders, may rest Kagiso Rabada; could give debut to Marques Ackerman
  • Travis Head defends Test team against criticism from former players including Matthew Hayden
  • Steve Smith admits still traumatized by 2018 scandal that led to his year-long ban
  • The Syrian embassy in Berlin returned a citizen's passport after 43 years.
  • The passport belonged to Adnan Wahoud, a mechanical engineer residing in Germany.
  • It was originally confiscated by the former Assad government for his refusal to cooperate.