◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. BoJ Summary of Opinions Reveals Members Favor Further Rate Hikes Amid Inflation Concerns
  2. China ends 11-year tax break on lithium-ion EV batteries, signaling broader incentive rollback
  3. Gold little changed after 6% September slide as softer U.S. PCE cuts Fed hike bets
  4. China's multipolar worldview doesn't exclude the US -- for now
  5. Taiwan develops sea drones with US tech to counter China's growing maritime presence

Markets 126

+
  • The US Dollar is experiencing an upward trend.
  • Higher bond yields are identified as the primary catalyst for the dollar's strength.
  • Increased yields typically enhance the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets for investors.

Macro/Economy 49

  • China reinstated the consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries in September, ending an 11-year tax break.
  • The country also plans to conclude vehicle purchase tax exemptions for EVs in 2028.
  • Reduced government support is expected to trigger a shakeout in China's crowded auto manufacturing sector.
  • China has been the global leader in new energy vehicle sales for 11 consecutive years.
  • Bangladesh increased purchases of US goods (Boeing aircraft, LNG, grains) worth billions following a February trade agreement.
  • Despite increased US imports, Bangladesh's exports to the U.S. have not seen a substantial boost.
  • Ready-made garment exports to the U.S. fell 7.55% year-on-year in the February-July period.
  • The implementation and future benefits of the February trade pact remain uncertain.
  • China's seven-day National Day holiday begins Thursday, with over 2 billion passenger trips anticipated.
  • A significant portion of these trips are directed towards Southeast Asian destinations.
  • Chinese travelers are largely avoiding Japan due to ongoing diplomatic tensions between Tokyo and Beijing.

Central Banks 9

+
  • Several BoJ members advocate for continued rate increases in line with economic and price developments.
  • Policy focus has shifted to anchoring underlying inflation near 2%, with some urging nimble action to prevent overshoot.
  • One member noted the chance of the terminal rate exceeding estimates depending on overseas developments.
  • Cabinet Office representatives expect the BoJ to uphold accountability and carefully assess cumulative rate hike impacts.
  • Big manufacturers' sentiment index rose for 6 consecutive quarters, reaching its highest level since March 2018.

Energy/Oil 21

  • Malaysia's Petronas, via its Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) joint venture, temporarily shut the Songkhla Export Pipeline.
  • The shutdown was initiated after an issue was identified during a routine inspection.
  • It is a precautionary measure to protect pipeline integrity and ensure safe operations.
  • The pipeline is crucial for linking offshore gas production in the Gulf of Thailand to gas markets in Thailand and Malaysia.
  • Operations will only resume once confirmed safe.

Gold/Metals 20

+
  • Gold prices remained largely stable after a significant decline in the previous month.
  • The precious metal experienced a 6% drop in value during September.
  • Softer U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data has reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
  • Lowered prospects for Fed rate increases typically provide support for non-yielding assets like gold.

Crypto 31

Geopolitics 46

  • China is perceived as steering the world toward a multipolar order, away from a U.S.-centered one.
  • A recent international conference hosted by China suggests its motives are less confrontational than often assumed.
  • China's vision for a multipolar world does not necessarily exclude the United States, at least for the present.
  • Taiwan is combining traditional shipbuilding with U.S. software and technology to produce sea drones.
  • The initiative aims to enhance maritime security amid intensifying pressure from China's vast fleet.
  • Tie-ups are targeting the nascent sea drone industry, driven by navy and coast guard procurement plans.
  • Analysis suggests former President Trump's statement at a US-China summit may have been a 'diplomatic trap' set by Xi Jinping.
  • Trump's remark about WWII allies could inadvertently grant historical legitimacy to China's current position, particularly regarding Taiwan.
  • The article highlights the potential for strategic exploitation of diplomatic statements in US-China relations.

Tech/AI 33

  • Google is withholding its most powerful AI model, Gemini 4 Argon, from public release, offering it only to vetted cybersecurity experts.
  • The phased rollout aims to ensure safety and prevent misuse by hackers, mirroring rival Anthropic's cautious approach.
  • Google is voluntarily providing the US government early access and will gather feedback before wider availability.
  • Gemini 4 Argon excels in complex tasks like software engineering, legal, financial work, and cyber defense, including identifying critical software flaws.
  • The model includes safeguards to refuse requests for cyberattacks or developing chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons, addressing misuse and misalignment risks.
  • US President Trump launched America.gov, an AI chatbot to simplify access to government information.
  • Initially, the chatbot contradicted Trump's claims on the 2020 election and Jan 6, citing official records.
  • On its second day, the chatbot ceased answering questions about past elections, stating it avoids political commentary.
  • It continued to debunk other claims, such as Trump's 'worst inflation ever' under Biden, citing BLS data.
  • The shift in political responses raised questions about potential administration interference.
  • Sakana AI CEO David Ha advocates for a collective and resilient approach to artificial intelligence.
  • The future of AI development is highlighted as being built in Japan.
  • Sakana AI, co-founded by David Ha, is based in Tokyo.

Companies 6

+
  • Paramount has received court approval for its deal with Warner Bros.
  • Ynon Kreiz, current CEO of Mattel, has been appointed as co-CEO of Paramount.
  • This move signifies major corporate restructuring and strategic leadership changes for Paramount.
+
  • Nidec's accounting firm declined to vouch for the accuracy of its delayed financial report.
  • The motor maker faces a fast-approaching deadline to demonstrate improved governance structures.
  • Failure to address governance issues could lead to a risk of delisting.
+
  • Boeing workers are scheduled to vote on a new contract proposal.
  • The vote follows an improved offer from Boeing management.
  • The outcome will impact labor relations and potentially production stability at the aerospace giant.
+
  • Kirin Holdings is now benefiting from its 2023 acquisition of Australian supplement maker Blackmores.
  • The acquisition is a key part of Kirin's strategy to expand its health products business.
  • This move provides a new growth driver for Kirin as its traditional beer market contracts.
  • Blackmores-branded supplements are being introduced to Asian markets, leveraging Kirin's network.
+
  • Conifer Management purchased $66.3 million worth of Group 1 Automotive (GPI) stock.
  • The acquisition represents a significant investment by Conifer Management.
  • Group 1 Automotive is a prominent automotive retailer.
  • The purchase suggests confidence from Conifer Management in GPI's future prospects.
  • Japanese premium streetwear brand Human Made is expanding globally due to strong overseas demand.
  • A new Tokyo flagship store opened last weekend to elevate its global presence.
  • New stores are planned for Shanghai and New York next year.

Thai Markets 18

Other 3

  • Nikkei Asia will publish a month-long autobiographical series featuring Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of Blackstone.
  • Schwarzman co-founded Blackstone in 1985, building it into the world's largest alternative asset manager with over $1.3 trillion in assets under management.
  • His career included early struggles, a humiliating investment failure, and growth aided by Japanese capital.
  • Schwarzman also acted as a diplomat, mediating between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to ease tensions.
  • An individual aged 71 continues to work.
  • Annual earnings are reported at $108,000.
  • Total retirement savings across IRA and Roth accounts amount to $152,000.
  • Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, 101, was admitted to the National Heart Institute.
  • He was admitted for observation, according to his spokesperson.
  • The hospitalization occurred a day after the death of his wife, Siti Hasmah Mohamad Ali.
  • Mahathir is known as Malaysia's longest-serving leader.