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  1. Hedge Funds Hold Record Share of US Treasury Market, Raising Financial Stability Concerns
  2. Mediators Advance Efforts for US-Iran Peace Deal Amid Ongoing Tensions
  3. US-China Trade Truce Remains 'Fragile' After Xi-Trump Summit, Analysts Say · 2 sources
  4. Trump Accord Calls for Tech Firms to 'Self-Police' Frontier AI Risks · 2 sources
  5. Ukraine Aims to Boost High-Tech Exports, Leverage Digital Resilience Amidst War

Markets 123

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  • Hedge funds' cash Treasury holdings reached a record 7% ($2 trillion) of the $28.9 trillion marketable Treasury debt by end-2025, nearly tripling in five years.
  • This shift helps finance growing government debt but increases market vulnerability due to hedge funds' high leverage compared to traditional long-term investors.
  • Regulators (Fed, BIS) warn that high hedge fund leverage, particularly in basis trades, poses new financial stability risks.
  • Forced deleveraging during market stress, as seen in March 2020, could lead to liquidity issues, margin calls, and market dysfunction.
  • While hedge funds can provide liquidity, their reliance on leverage and short-term financing makes core markets exposed to sudden unwinds.

Macro/Economy 60

  • The US-China trade truce is considered fragile despite the recent Xi-Trump summit, according to Asia Society Policy Institute analysts.
  • Modest economic concessions were made, but deeper, underlying disputes remain unresolved.
  • Analysts suggest the current situation indicates both nations are 'testing each other'.
  • Ukraine plans to significantly increase high-tech exports, utilizing expertise in military technologies and digital innovation, including AI.
  • The country is seeking cooperation agreements with the US, other nations, and international bodies, sharing its experience in maintaining digital services during wartime.
  • Ukraine's digital transformation minister, Oksana Ferchuk, is pitching cooperation projects to the US and EU, emphasizing the potential for civil application of military tech.
  • Despite Russian strikes, Ukraine has maintained digital service functionality through built-in redundancies and by moving data centers underground.
  • Ferchuk warns that missing investment in Ukraine's high-tech sector means missing the transformation of new industries.
  • Hong Kong's demographic sustainability is a key focus in its first five-year plan and latest policy address.
  • Measures announced include extending the newborn bonus scheme and increasing financial support for second and subsequent children.
  • The article suggests the fertility debate should extend beyond just the size of financial bonuses.
  • The larger challenge is Hong Kong's ability to maintain dynamism and competitiveness amidst its demographic shifts.
  • Japan's import dependence on China has grown in some sectors despite diplomatic challenges to derisk.
  • Over 50% of Japan's rare earth imports continue to originate from China, indicating persistent reliance.
  • Japan's experience in attempting to reduce reliance on China provides insights for Southeast Asian nations considering similar strategies.

Central Banks 16

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  • Australia's central bank raised interest rates on Tuesday.
  • This marks the fourth rate hike this year, pushing rates to a 15-year high.
  • The move aims to combat inflation, which is compounded by global price shocks.
  • Global price shocks are linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

Energy/Oil 21

Gold/Metals 22

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  • Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia increased 82% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026.
  • The surge is attributed to Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, cutting its own production quotas.
  • Manila is now aiming to develop its domestic nickel processing industry.
  • Industry experts caution that establishing a local processing industry will face significant challenges.
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  • Horse Heaven Resources is scheduled to present at the JMM Gold Forum.
  • The presentation will take place in 2026.
  • Key discussion points will include the scale and grade of resources.
  • The company will also address critical metals in its presentation.

Crypto 37

Geopolitics 33

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  • Mediators are making a renewed push to advance a peace agreement between the US and Iran.
  • The proposed interim deal would involve Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports.
  • US President Trump previously rejected an Iranian proposal and reiterated his stance against Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.
  • Discussions are expected to focus on an amended draft agreement presented at the UN General Assembly.
  • WTI crude oil was up 0.38% at $88.40 at the time of writing, reflecting market reaction.
  • The annual state-backed expo in Dalian showcasing Japanese goods has been cancelled for this year.
  • The cancellation reflects the fraying relations between China and Japan.
  • The Dalian trade show was one of the few large events in China specifically focused on Japan.

Tech/AI 45

  • US President Trump and major tech executives signed a voluntary accord on managing risks from frontier AI systems.
  • The 'Joint Commitment on Frontier Responsibilities' places primary responsibility on developers for AI safety and behavior.
  • Key commitments include internal controls, independent external audits, and board-level oversight to prevent unintended system access.
  • Signatories include CEOs from Google, Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI, Nvidia, and xAI.
  • Trump also signed an executive order directing the use of 'Super Intelligence' instead of 'Artificial Intelligence'.
  • AI data centers are rapidly expanding across Asia.
  • Local communities are increasingly opposing the rapid expansion of these data centers.
  • Primary concerns driving the opposition include high demand for power and water resources.
  • Lack of transparency from developers and governments is also a key issue for communities.
  • Governments and developers are actively responding to the public backlash and community concerns.
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  • Broadcom and Toppan Holdings opened Singapore's first advanced chip substrate plant.
  • The facility commenced operations months ahead of its original schedule.
  • It aims to alleviate supply bottlenecks for critical AI data center materials and computing chips.
  • The initiative strengthens Singapore's position in the global artificial intelligence supply chain.
  • Samsung group companies will invest $1 billion in Helix Digital Infrastructure.
  • Helix Digital Infrastructure is a new AI infrastructure company backed by global investment firm KKR.
  • The investment signifies Samsung's strategic expansion beyond chip manufacturing into the broader AI infrastructure sector.
  • OpenAI, developer of ChatGPT, unveiled its new personal AI agent named Dot.
  • Dot is positioned as a direct competitor to Meta's recently popular AI assistant, Muse.
  • The launch underscores the intensifying race among tech companies to release new AI models and intelligent assistants.
  • AI-related stocks recently tumbled following comments from Anthropic chief Dario Amodei on slowing frontier AI development.
  • Thousands of suppliers dependent on AI buildout gathered, indicating robust ongoing demand for AI infrastructure.
  • The tech supply chain appears to be largely shrugging off slowdown concerns, anticipating continued strong growth in AI-related demand.

Companies 2

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  • Shein Group's shares plunged on Tuesday following its Q2 earnings report.
  • Net revenue grew only 0.86% to $11.1 billion in the second quarter.
  • This marks the fast fashion giant's first earnings report since its IPO.
  • The company's shares are substantially down from its listing price.
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  • Thai Airways announced a temporary 30% reduction in its flight schedule.
  • The cuts are a direct response to operational disruptions caused by recent heavy rains and flooding.
  • The situation also involves 5,600 pieces of luggage stranded at Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport due to a shortage of baggage handlers.

Thai Markets 12

Other 2

  • A family of four was hospitalized after a fire broke out at a public housing estate in Sha Tin.
  • The incident at Yan Chuen House, Shui Chuen O Estate, led to the evacuation of approximately 140 residents.
  • The fire, which started at the family's TV stand, was extinguished by firefighters around 7:10 AM.
  • University of Tokyo selected graduate school professor Yuko Fujigaki as its next president.
  • Fujigaki is the first woman to hold the presidential position in the university's history.
  • The selection committee prioritized organizational change and overcoming divisions.
  • This appointment follows recent scandals within the institution.
  • The faculty vote results were set aside during the selection process.