◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. Trump-Xi Summit Concludes Amid Trade Truce Extension, AI Tensions
  2. Trump Administration Poised to Ease Biden-Era Fuel Economy Rules
  3. Nepal Floods: One Month On, Communities Grapple with Devastation and Slow Recovery
  4. US and China agree on tariff relief recommendations for $30bn of nonsensitive goods each
  5. Chinese EVs Expected to Enter US Market Despite Lack of Summit Deal, Analysts Say

Markets 26

Macro/Economy 52

  • The Trump administration is preparing to relax existing fuel economy standards.
  • This action would reverse stricter regulations previously enacted under the Biden administration.
  • The policy shift is expected to impact the automotive industry and energy consumption.
  • One month after massive floods and landslides, over 7,000 people are killed or remain missing in Nepal.
  • Economic damage and losses are estimated at approximately $2.7 billion.
  • Communities are slowly attempting to normalize life, with schools reopening and relief efforts underway, despite widespread displacement and exhaustion.
  • Personal accounts highlight immense loss, with families mourning dead or missing members and struggling to rebuild homes and livelihoods.
  • The U.S. and China agreed on recommendations for "more favorable tariff treatment."
  • This agreement covers $30 billion of nonsensitive products traded in each direction.
  • The understanding was reached following a summit between the two countries' presidents.
  • Analysts predict Chinese electric vehicles will inevitably enter the U.S. market, despite no agreement at recent U.S.-China talks.
  • Chinese automakers, including BYD, are expanding their global market share.
  • Rising inflation and fuel prices in the U.S. are increasing demand for more affordable EV options.
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  • Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) renewed its collaboration with Sendai city and Tohoku region of Japan for the fifth time.
  • TAT launched a new co-tourism campaign with Bhutan, aiming to promote it to European tourists at ITB Berlin next year.
  • Japanese visitors to Thailand were down 24.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2023, totaling 653,866, but surged to 108,564 in August.
  • TAT targets 1.5 million Japanese visitors this year, banking on a strengthening Yen and accelerated growth in Q4.
  • Promotional campaigns are underway with major airlines and online travel agents in Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka to encourage repeat visitors to second-tier destinations.

Central Banks 3

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  • BoJ members agreed financial conditions remain accommodative.
  • Consumer prices and wholesale inflation are rising due to increased import costs, with expectations for further expansion.
  • Medium- to long-term inflation expectations are rising for households and companies, with underlying inflation nearing 2%.
  • Many members noted a gradual shift to focusing on stabilizing underlying inflation around 2%.
  • Some members advocated for nimble policy adjustments and potentially faster rate hikes due to upside inflation risks.
  • Minutes from the monetary policy meeting held on July 30 and 31, 2026, have been released.
  • The full minutes are expected to detail discussions on economic conditions and the policy outlook.
  • Investors will likely scrutinize the content for insights into future monetary policy direction.

Energy/Oil 5

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  • The Trump Administration is promoting a new oil order to revive Venezuela's oil industry.
  • The U.S.-led restructuring has removed Russian and Chinese companies from previous concessions.
  • New oil deals are being forged with major oil companies, service providers, and newcomers.
  • The primary goal is to boost Venezuela's oil production and increase exports to the United States.

Crypto 6

Geopolitics 28

  • US and China agreed to extend their trade truce, which was due to expire November 10.
  • Tensions persist over tariffs, rare-earth minerals, and artificial intelligence, with no major breakthroughs reported.
  • US lawmakers introduced legislation to ban Chinese-made optical transceivers in sensitive government systems over national security concerns.
  • Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet again at the APEC forum in November and the G20 Summit in December.
  • Trump warned Xi against supporting Iran, receiving assurances, while Taiwan pushed back on Xi's comments regarding 'Taiwan independence'.
  • Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado rallied on Sunday.
  • Protesters demanded Machado's safe return and the holding of presidential elections.
  • The rallies aim to push for a democratic transition in Venezuela.
  • The current government is accused of election theft, jailing dissidents, and stifling free speech.
  • More than three dozen (39) political prisoners were released in Venezuela between Friday and Saturday, a rights group reported.
  • The releases follow US-backed negotiations between Venezuela's interim government and the opposition.
  • Among those freed were eight women accused of 'narco-terrorism' and six people accused of working with the US to overthrow Maduro.
  • Human rights groups reported 344 political prisoners remained in the country as of September 18, urging more releases.
  • The releases occur amid US pressure and an amnesty law enacted in February, though the rate of releases has been slow.
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  • US President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, deeming it 'not acceptable'.
  • Trump claimed Iran is 'losing so badly' in the context of the proposed deal.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Tehran is still awaiting an official US response to its proposal.
  • The European Union and the Philippines achieved a "substantial agreement" on free trade after a decade of intermittent negotiations.
  • The breakthrough, announced Tuesday, marks the resumption and success of talks that began in 2016 and stalled in 2017.
  • Analysts suggest this bilateral deal could serve as a blueprint for Brussels to pursue a wider free trade agreement with the entire ASEAN bloc.
  • Indian expatriates in Germany are growing uneasy following significant electoral gains by the anti-immigration AfD party.
  • The populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party made large advances in four recent state elections.
  • The rise of the AfD contrasts with the German government's policy of attracting skilled foreign workers.
  • Expats' concerns highlight potential shifts in Germany's social and immigration policies.

Tech/AI 8

Companies 2

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  • NIO and Geely Holding Group signed a broad deal on battery-swapping and charging businesses.
  • Geely will acquire a 30% stake in NIO Power, valuing the unit at approximately 16 billion yuan ($2.38 billion) post-money.
  • Geely's contribution includes its Yiyi Power subsidiary and 640 million yuan ($95 million) in cash.
  • NIO will acquire a 10% equity stake in Geely's smart charging subsidiary, Haohan Energy.
  • The companies will co-develop unified battery swapping standards and vehicle models.
  • KFC in Myanmar is serving a new dish incorporating fermented tea leaves, a traditional local ingredient.
  • The initiative aims to attract diners and counter increasing competition from rivals like Lotteria.
  • This strategy reflects KFC's effort to localize its menu to suit regional tastes and market dynamics.

Thai Markets 13

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  • Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) reported flood levels ranging from 16cm to 47cm on multiple streets Monday morning.
  • Key affected areas included Pattanakan Road (47.5cm), Lat Phrao 122 Road (45.1cm), and Soi Senanikhom Road (39.5cm).
  • The BMA noted 46mm of rainwater late Sunday night, with skies clearing by Monday.
  • The Meteorological Department forecasts isolated heavy rain in western and lower North, western Central Plains, and East due to a low-pressure cell.