◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. Stock Futures Flat Ahead of Key US Consumer Inflation Report; Global Equities Decline Amid Rate Hike Concerns
  2. Fed May Raise Rates Multiple Times, Market Faces Stiff Test
  3. August Inflation Persists, Core CPI Exceeds Forecast, Boosting Odds of Fed Rate Hike Next Week
  4. Brent Crude Tops $100 Amid Intensifying US-Iran Military Conflict
  5. Dollar Rises Against Euro, Swiss Franc on US Inflation Data; Fed Rate Hike Odds Increase

Markets 125

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  • US stock futures were little changed as traders await August's consumer price index (CPI) report.
  • Major US averages recorded a fourth consecutive losing day, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all down around 0.6-0.7%.
  • Asia-Pacific markets fell, led by South Korea's Kospi (-2.7%) and Japan's Nikkei 225 (-2.6%).
  • Oil prices surged (WTI >$100/barrel) and the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.95%, hitting its highest since October 2023.
  • August CPI is expected to rise 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, a critical factor for the Fed's September rate decision, with a 71% hike probability.
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  • US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August, with core CPI up 2.4% year-on-year, reinforcing rate hike expectations.
  • Market odds for a 25 basis-point Fed rate hike next week increased to 86% from 72% previously.
  • The dollar gained 0.13% against the euro and 0.47% against the Swiss franc, but its overall advance was limited by rising oil prices.
  • The yen strengthened against the dollar, with the Bank of Japan also expected to raise interest rates next week.
  • Brent crude oil prices remained above $100 a barrel, gaining about 8% for the week due to escalating Iran war.

Macro/Economy 55

  • South Korea and Japan are considering deeper trade integration to counter a fraying global economic order.
  • The move is driven by increasing tariffs and supply-chain disruptions from global conflicts.
  • Business leaders and analysts see potential benefits despite historical tensions between the two nations.
  • A combined economic bloc would represent a significant US$6 trillion economic force.
  • Long Thanh International Airport in Vietnam is set to begin trial operations this month.
  • Airlines are slow to commit to moving flights due to ongoing disputes over fees and other operational issues.
  • The Vietnamese government is offering incentives to encourage the transition from Ho Chi Minh City's Tan Son Nhat airport.
  • The project aims to establish Long Thanh as a major regional aviation hub for the Ho Chi Minh City area.
  • Devastating floods in late August severely impacted northern Nepal, destroying towns, roads, hotels, and power plants.
  • Nepal's tourism sector anticipates 30% of autumn bookings to be canceled due to the damage.
  • Tourism, which accounts for 38% of Nepal's service exports, faces significant losses.
  • The floods have caused widespread destruction to critical infrastructure, including hotels and power generation facilities.

Central Banks 5

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  • The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates up to three times, according to market expectations.
  • Economists note the Fed's historical pattern of not being content with only a single rate hike.
  • Markets could face significant challenges from potential sustained monetary tightening.
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  • Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% monthly and 3.4% annually in August, aligning with Dow Jones consensus.
  • Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly, 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast.
  • Energy prices, particularly gasoline (+3.9% monthly, +27.4% annually), were a primary driver of the headline increase.
  • Shelter costs climbed 0.3% and transportation services rose 0.5%, contributing to broad-based gains.
  • Market odds for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week jumped to nearly 90% following the inflation report.

Energy/Oil 24

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  • Brent crude futures surpassed the key $100 per barrel threshold.
  • Oil prices are climbing due to intensifying military conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
  • A key commodity price index has hit an 18-year high.
  • Fighting in the Middle East is stirring logistics concerns, contributing to the price surge.
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  • Oil prices increased during early trading.
  • The rise was driven by escalating concerns over potential supply disruptions.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are the primary cause of these concerns.

Gold/Metals 20

Crypto 33

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  • Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated that companies should not possess veto power over stock tokens.
  • The comments were made in the context of the ongoing dispute involving AMC Entertainment Holdings.
  • The issue centers on the control and issuance mechanisms for tokenized representations of company stocks.

Geopolitics 36

  • Russian attacks on petrol stations in Kyiv resulted in two fatalities.
  • Ukrainian strikes within Russia killed three individuals.
  • The incidents highlight ongoing cross-border military actions and civilian casualties.
  • India will host the BRICS Summit on September 12-13.
  • India faces a balancing act to strengthen the bloc without increasing Chinese influence.
  • The BRICS concept marks 25 years since its coining and 20 years since the bloc's formation.
  • Energy ties among BRICS nations are deepening amidst global crises.

Tech/AI 29

  • AI startup Discovery Loop is reportedly seeking to raise funds at a $50 billion valuation, according to Business Insider.
  • This potential valuation marks a significant increase from the $10 billion valuation discussed last month for $1 billion in financing.
  • The company was launched this year by former Google AI and engineering leaders, including veteran engineer Jeff Dean.
  • Discovery Loop focuses on researching breakthroughs in machine learning, science, and engineering.
  • The deal terms are subject to change, and the $50 billion valuation is not guaranteed.
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  • Apple's entry into the foldable smartphone market is expected to open new opportunities for Japanese suppliers.
  • Japanese parts makers, including Nitto Denko and Nippon Electric Glass, are poised to benefit.
  • Foldable devices like the anticipated iPhone Duo require specialized components capable of repeated bending.
  • Japanese suppliers have a long history of developing compact and lightweight materials for mobile devices.
  • Satellite companies, excluding SpaceX, report insufficient launch capacity despite a high global launch cadence.
  • SpaceX is reportedly reducing its Falcon 9 launch program, with uncertainty regarding Starship's commercial payload availability.
  • Germany's Isar Aerospace successfully launched its Spectrum rocket, delivering CubeSats to low-Earth orbit from Norway.
  • The success of new launch providers like Isar Aerospace is welcomed by satellite operators seeking more options and competition.
  • Samsung Electronics won a lawsuit against the German city of Datteln regarding the procurement of 665 tablets.
  • The court ruled Datteln must reopen its tender process, having previously focused solely on Apple devices (iPads).
  • The decision could have significant implications for Samsung's market position in Germany's public procurement sector.
  • The case highlights competition in public sector technology contracts within Europe's largest economy.
  • Ukraine is set to launch a 5G auction for next-generation network development.
  • The country lacks a regulatory framework for high-risk vendors, prompting concerns.
  • Critics fear Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE could gain a significant foothold in Ukraine's 5G infrastructure.
  • The absence of vendor security rules raises concerns among European allies.

Companies 5

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  • Oracle's investments in AI are yielding positive returns.
  • The company is experiencing strong momentum in its cloud business.
  • Oracle's backlog significantly increased in the latest quarter.
  • These factors contributed to a more optimistic financial forecast for the company.
  • Criminal proceedings against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei commenced in a U.S. federal court.
  • Prosecution accuses Huawei of 'theft, lies, cover-ups' related to alleged trade secret theft and Iran sanctions violations.
  • The trial sheds light on allegations first levied nearly eight years ago.
  • Huawei denies all accusations.
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  • Adobe's recent earnings report failed to exceed Wall Street expectations.
  • Analysts indicate that merely meeting expectations is insufficient in the current market environment.
  • The performance suggests potential negative sentiment towards Adobe's stock.
  • A Hong Kong court found Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street Journal, improperly sought to deter a former reporter from union activity.
  • The court cleared Dow Jones of wrongfully dismissing the reporter, Selina Cheng.
  • The case is viewed as an indicator of the media climate in Hong Kong.
  • Kansai International Airport CEO Yasuaki Mikami aims to attract high-value travelers.
  • This strategy marks a shift from the airport's historical focus on low-cost carriers.
  • The plan is tied to the planned 2030 opening of a hotel-and-casino resort in Osaka.
  • Flying taxis are envisioned as a transport method for wealthy visitors to the resort.

Thai Markets 15