◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. Japan's Foreign Reserves See Record Drop in August Following Massive Yen-Buying Intervention
  2. Oil extends gains following reports of US and Iran striking ships
  3. Japanese Yen Outlook Hinges on Wage Data and US Inflation Amid Shifting Central Bank Expectations
  4. Asia-Pacific Markets Open Higher Amid Renewed Middle East Hostilities
  5. Nikkei Rises 1.8%, Led by Chip-Related Stocks Amid AI Hopes and US Economic Strength

Markets 90

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  • USD/JPY trades just above 154.00, having fallen 1.22% on Monday.
  • Japanese wage growth (seen at 3.9% YoY) due tonight is crucial for Bank of Japan policy, with a September hike 97% priced.
  • Federal Reserve's September hike is priced at 59%, making the BoJ's move seem more certain than the Fed's.
  • US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday is identified as the next significant market mover for the USD/JPY pair.
  • The article maintains a bearish bias for USD/JPY as long as the 155.00 level caps gains.
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  • Asia-Pacific markets opened broadly higher Monday, despite persistent Middle East tensions.
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 gained nearly 1%, while South Korea's Kospi advanced 3.09% at open.
  • Middle East turmoil continued with reports of US strikes on Iranian oil tankers following missile attacks.
  • US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated a nuclear deal with Iran may not happen soon, suggesting focus on destroying capabilities.
  • US stock markets are closed Monday for a holiday.
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  • Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 1.8% in early trading.
  • Gains were primarily driven by chip-related stocks.
  • Continued hopes for artificial intelligence (AI) demand supported the market.
  • Signs of U.S. economic strength also contributed to the positive sentiment.
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  • A record number of companies are projected to delist from the Tokyo Stock Exchange for the third consecutive year.
  • Some delistings are due to companies partnering with investment funds to go private.
  • Other companies are failing to meet the Tokyo Stock Exchange's tougher listing standards.
  • South Korea's stock market has recently experienced significant volatility.
  • Single-stock leveraged ETFs, launched approximately three months ago, are central to the market's swings.
  • The ETF boom is losing momentum as investors grow weary of market volatility.
  • The ongoing market volatility is beginning to affect the political arena in South Korea.

Macro/Economy 57

  • South Korea plans to integrate five public power companies by October 2027.
  • The merger aims to accelerate investments to meet rising energy demands.
  • Increased demand is driven by the growth of the country's AI and chipmaking sectors.
  • Seoul also intends to streamline other public corporations in oil, gas, and ports.
  • Global economic growth is projected to slow by 2075.
  • Asia is anticipated to continue its economic ascent.
  • Indonesia is forecast to become a top 5 global economy by 2050.
  • Indonesia is expected to displace Brazil and Russia in economic size.
  • Pakistan's population increase is identified as an economic tailwind.
  • The head of the European Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong (EuroCham) will lead a mission to Brussels to 'reset' perceptions of the city.
  • The mission aims to emphasize Hong Kong's fundamental distinction from mainland Chinese counterparts.
  • The 'door-knock' mission coincides with Hong Kong's unveiling of its first five-year plan on September 16.
  • Taiwan's central bank imposed mortgage regulations to cool an overheated housing market.
  • Wealthy buyers are increasingly paying in cash, circumventing the curbs and maintaining high prices.
  • Middle-income households face longer loan approval times and tighter lending standards.
  • The regulations are having unintended side effects, exacerbating housing market inequality.
  • Kumamoto Airport aims to launch scheduled flights to Thailand within three years.
  • The airport operator is exploring additional routes to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian destinations.
  • International cargo operations are being expanded to support TSMC and Sony plants in the region.

Central Banks 3

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  • Japan's foreign reserves fell by a record $79.6 billion (6.18%) to $1.208 trillion in August.
  • The decline was due to a record 15.4 trillion yen ($98.66 billion) spent on dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention.
  • Intervention helped lift the yen from near 164 per dollar to 155.20, though it later weakened before recovering.
  • Part of the intervention was coordinated with the United States, the first such joint action since 2011.
  • Japan could utilize a COVID-19 era Federal Reserve backstop to raise dollar liquidity without selling US Treasuries.
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  • EUR/USD trades with modest gains around 1.1615 despite stronger-than-expected US jobs data.
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162,000 in August (vs. 56,000 expected), with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.1%.
  • Markets now price in 58.3% odds of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in September, up from 50.2% pre-data.
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% at its upcoming meeting.
  • Technical analysis indicates EUR/USD maintains a modest bullish bias, trading above its 100-day moving average.

Energy/Oil 17

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  • Oil prices are rising.
  • The increase is linked to geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran.
  • Reports indicate military actions, specifically 'strike ships', contributing to market concerns.

Gold/Metals 12

Crypto 30

Geopolitics 29

Tech/AI 7

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  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has arrived.
  • The declaration was made after OpenAI's launch of GPT-6 Astra.
  • Huang's statement signifies a perceived major milestone in AI development.
  • Elon Musk's SpaceX targets a late 2027 launch for orbital data centers, but industry experts predict significant scale closer to the 2030s.
  • Key obstacles include developing effective cooling systems for the vacuum of space and managing rapid hardware obsolescence (e.g., GPUs).
  • High-volume data transfer back to Earth and powering hyperscale operations, potentially requiring nuclear power, are also significant challenges.
  • Achieving hyperscale for orbital data centers could take another 5-7 years, according to one CEO.
  • SpaceX has a history of defying expert skepticism regarding ambitious timelines and satellite deployment.
  • The U.S. plans to raise artificial intelligence safety concerns with China during an upcoming summit between top leaders.
  • The potential talks offer a window for dialogue despite the ongoing technological rivalry between the two superpowers.
  • Silicon Valley insiders are proposing ideas for AI cooperation, though skepticism about its feasibility persists.
  • The summit involves U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Companies 2

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  • Toyota Motor targets a 40% increase in operating profit from non-new car sales sources.
  • The goal is to reach 3 trillion yen ($19.2 billion) by fiscal 2030.
  • Key drivers for this growth include software updates and vehicle leasing.
  • The strategy involves leveraging software-defined vehicles, such as the 2025 RAV4 model.
  • Metaplanet's CEO has issued a public statement.
  • Shareholders express dissatisfaction, indicating key questions remain unaddressed.
  • Unanswered "hard questions" suggest ongoing concerns among investors.

Thai Markets 12

  • Chiang Mai, Thailand, a popular destination for digital nomads, is implementing a public-private initiative.
  • The effort aims to create a 'Nomad Friendly District' to foster coexistence between remote workers and local residents.
  • The San Pa Khoi neighborhood regularly hosts events for digital nomads and locals to mingle.
  • The initiative seeks to upgrade the city's appeal and manage the impact of its growing digital nomad population.

Other 2

  • Ho Chi Minh City has delayed the implementation of its low-emission zone.
  • The rollout is postponed by 6 months, giving residents and businesses more time to adjust.
  • The initial phase of the zone will cover a limited downtown area.
  • Restrictions will initially target specific gasoline-powered vehicles like buses and garbage trucks.
  • Two Chinese women, aged 25 and 28, were arrested in Chon Buri for allegedly working without proper permits at a school.
  • One woman held a work permit as a teacher but for a different employer and workplace.
  • The other woman reportedly had no work permit at all.
  • They were found working in marketing and online content production roles.
  • Both were charged and handed over to Pattaya police.