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Asia’s AI-driven commodity and tech rally clashes with El Niño’s drought risks, while yen strength and Berkshire’s Japan bets fuel risk-on sentiment.

  1. Anthropic IPO launch shifts to mid-October, prospectus expected late September
  2. Yen consolidates ahead of potential hawkish BOJ rate hike later this month · 2 sources
  3. Euro steadies near 1.1625 ahead of US jobs data and Fed rate expectations
  4. Vietnam's Trade Volume Hits Record $770 Billion Driven by AI Demand and Trade Friction
  5. El Nino Expected to Persist Through February 2027, Bringing Drought and Heat to Asia

Markets 100

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  • EUR/USD flat at 1.1625 as traders await US August NFP (56k est.) and unemployment rate (4.1% est.)
  • Fed’s Waller signals September rate hold (50.2% hike odds vs 63.2% earlier) unless inflation surprises
  • ECB seen hiking rates again in September per Reuters poll, with market pricing extending hawkish stance to year-end
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  • Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75%, with a slightly firmer tone on growth outlook.
  • OCBC projects OPR normalization to 3.00% by January 2027, citing resilient economic fundamentals.
  • A firm domestic backdrop is expected to support the MYR, but near-term USD/MYR moves will track the broader USD, risk sentiment, and global rates.
  • USD/MYR is seen with 2-way risks; key support levels are at 4.0320 and 4.02, while resistance is at 4.05 and 4.0610.
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  • Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura remains on alert to exchange-rate moves
  • Dollar fell to 155.305 yen after comments, amid speculation of potential yen-buying intervention
  • Yen surged 2% on Thursday, fueling intervention rumors though no official action confirmed
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  • Nikkei 225 up 0.5% in early trade, led by tech and financial shares
  • Gains reflect reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes
  • Tech and financial sectors outperformed broader market

Macro/Economy 61

  • Vietnam's eight-month trade volume reached a record $770 billion.
  • The surge is primarily driven by artificial intelligence-related demand for data centers and other goods.
  • The country also benefits from ongoing China-US trade friction.
  • Both exports and imports experienced significant growth, resulting in a trade deficit for the period.
  • The current El Nino phenomenon has a near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027.
  • It is projected to cause drought and elevated temperatures across much of Asia.
  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued this update with unprecedented confidence.
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  • World Bank advises Thailand to attract battery and EV component suppliers from South Korea and Japan.
  • The move aims to establish Thailand as a regional export hub for electric vehicles.
  • Recommendation is part of a broader strategy to diversify supply chains and bolster economic growth.
  • US goods trade deficit with 13 Asia-Pacific economies hit $99.3bn in July, up from prior month
  • Imports from region continued to rise despite US efforts to curb inbound shipments
  • Vietnam led the increase in trade deficit with the US
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  • The South Korean won has strengthened on foreign exchange markets.
  • SK Hynix's U.S. listing is contributing to the won's rally.
  • South Korean efforts to encourage exporters to repatriate funds are also supporting the currency.
  • Robust exports and past rate hikes provide additional tailwinds for the won.
  • The won's strength contrasts with the weak yen, despite reported interventions in both currencies in July.

Central Banks 4

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  • Yen holds steady against USD and peers in early trading
  • Markets price in ~10 bps chance of BOJ rate hike on March 19
  • BOJ policy shift could signal end to negative rates era

Energy/Oil 23

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  • Brent crude up ~1.5% to $82.30/bbl on supply disruption concerns
  • Geopolitical tensions in Middle East cited as key driver
  • Market watchers monitor potential impact on global oil flows
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  • Thai energy firms to resume drilling in Myanmar’s Yadana gas field
  • Western majors exited Myanmar after 2021 military coup, creating investment gap
  • Project restart signals regional shift in energy investment priorities
  • Lucknow leads India with most residential solar installs, but rollout remains fragmented nationwide
  • Finance professional Sagar Agarwal faced bureaucratic hurdles despite joining a large-scale rooftop solar initiative
  • Uneven adoption risks undermining India's broader renewable energy and energy independence ambitions
  • TG Octopus Energy plans 1,000 small-scale solar projects in greater Tokyo by fiscal 2030
  • Aims to reduce exposure to Middle East supply risks and market volatility
  • Target: 200 projects per year starting immediately

Gold/Metals 16

Crypto 28

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  • UK's largest retail investment platform has begun offering access to crypto ETNs.
  • The move signifies a shift from the platform's previous warnings about cryptocurrency risks.
  • This development expands retail investor access to regulated digital asset products within the UK market.
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  • Analysis of six years of Bitcoin data indicates Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reports do not significantly impact BTC price.
  • The NFP report, a key US economic indicator, shows limited correlation with Bitcoin's short-term price movements.
  • This suggests Bitcoin's price drivers may be more internal or related to other factors than immediate US labor market data.

Geopolitics 43

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  • Malaysia's rare earth reserves attracting foreign investors due to China's upcoming export restrictions on critical minerals
  • Japan and Western nations seeking to diversify supply chains away from China
  • Lynas' Kuantan rare earths facility positioned as alternative source
  • A Hong Kong court upheld the conviction of Cardinal Joseph Zen Ze-kiun.
  • The case involves a humanitarian fund Zen helped establish to support individuals injured during 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations.
  • Cardinal Zen is known as an outspoken advocate for civil liberties and political freedom.
  • AI-driven drone swarms and cyberattacks reshaping modern warfare post-Ukraine conflict
  • Democracies urged to accelerate military tech adoption and cyber defenses
  • Former Ukrainian ambassador highlights need for rapid adaptation to hybrid warfare tactics
  • 17 of 18 Pacific Islands Forum members call for advance notice of missile tests
  • China's July missile launch sparked regional divisions
  • Palau hosts annual forum amid growing geopolitical tensions

Tech/AI 33

  • Belgian chemical maker Solvay plans to more than double its high-purity chipmaking chemical production capacity in Taiwan by 2026.
  • The expansion is driven by the massive growth opportunity from booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips.
  • Solvay is localizing more production to meet customer demands for supply chain security.
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  • SK Hynix to open U.S. HBM chip packaging plant in Indiana by 2028, creating 7,000 jobs despite local protests over noise/pollution
  • Asia-Pacific data center demand to triple by 2030 (28 GW in 2025), with grassroots opposition growing over electricity costs and pollution
  • Google accelerates AI chip development, targeting two TPU releases per year vs. prior two-year cycle, with $205B AI capex planned for 2024
  • ASML Japan plans to increase its domestic workforce from 500 to approximately 700 employees by 2030.
  • The expansion aims to support advanced semiconductor production in Japan.
  • This support is specifically directed towards next-generation chipmakers like Rapidus and TSMC.
  • Kioxia Holdings plans to utilize enhanced NAND flash memory.
  • The new memory aims to serve as an alternative to DRAM for AI applications.
  • Strategy seeks to strengthen ties with major U.S. technology companies.
  • Move is intended to counter growing competition from Chinese rivals.
  • Japanese firms deploy humanoid robots in forestry and lab work, leveraging factory-tested precision
  • Aims to compete with Chinese rivals in non-manufacturing robotics applications
  • Developments highlight Japan's push to diversify robotics beyond traditional industrial uses

Companies 16

  • Anthropic's IPO marketing is now expected to commence in mid-October at the earliest.
  • The public prospectus, initially anticipated next week, is now slated for late September.
  • The delay pushes back a potentially $2 trillion listing, a significant test for the AI industry's public market demand.
  • Anthropic is finalizing a $15 billion revolving credit facility as part of the IPO preparations.
  • Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citi are among the banks advising on the offering.
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  • Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel met with the heads of five Japanese trading houses and insurer Tokio Marine Holdings in Tokyo.
  • Discussions focused on business strategies and potential areas for cooperation.
  • Itochu chairman specifically expressed welcome for additional capital from Berkshire Hathaway.
  • Berkshire Hathaway has significant investments in these Japanese trading companies.
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  • Berkshire Hathaway is considering increasing its stakes in Japan's five largest trading houses.
  • CEO Greg Abel confirmed this during his first visit to Tokyo since becoming CEO in January.
  • The conglomerate also aims for deeper collaboration, including joint investments and M&A globally, with these firms.
  • The five trading houses are Mitsubishi Corp., Itochu, Mitsui & Co., Sumitomo Corp., and Marubeni.
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  • A US appeals court narrowed the scope of an anti-unionization case brought by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) against Starbucks.
  • The ruling potentially limits the legal challenges Starbucks faces regarding its labor practices.
  • This development represents a partial legal victory for Starbucks in its ongoing disputes with labor unions.
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  • Boeing has been awarded a contract by the U.S. Navy.
  • The contract is valued at $241 million.
  • The purpose of the contract is for aircraft repairs.
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  • Raised $3B at $30B valuation, co-led by Atreides and Valor Equity Partners
  • Recent $13B, 5-year GPU/AI infrastructure deal with Jane Street
  • Pivoted from crypto mining to hyperscale AI data centers for Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI
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  • VW to cut 4,000 jobs globally as part of €10bn cost-saving plan
  • Suppliers face potential volume reductions amid shift to EVs and efficiency drives
  • Restructuring targets €10bn savings by 2026, including €3.5bn in procurement
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  • Anil Chakravarthy named Adobe CEO effective Dec 1, replacing Shantanu Narayen
  • Adobe shares drop ~2% in pre-market trading on leadership transition news
  • Transition follows Narayen's 18-year tenure amid investor scrutiny of growth strategy
  • Japan's Daiichi Life Group will acquire New Zealand-based Fidelity Life Assurance.
  • The acquisition is valued at $370 million.
  • Daiichi Life is betting on New Zealand's population growth, driven by immigration, to boost the insurer's business.
  • This move is part of Daiichi Life's strategy to increase the proportion of its profit derived from overseas operations.
  • Amazon Prime Video plans to more than double its investment in original content production in Japan over the next two years.
  • The strategy aims to challenge Netflix's leading position in the Japanese streaming market.
  • The goal is to produce hit exclusive titles to attract more viewers in the growing market.
  • Subaru and other Japanese aviation parts makers are collaborating on joint deliveries of components.
  • The initiative aims to reduce costs and workloads across the aircraft assembly supply chain.
  • "Milk runs" for aircraft parts transport will be expanded nationwide.
  • Nippon Express will provide support for the new joint delivery network.
  • The move comes as Boeing increases output, driving demand for more efficient parts delivery.
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  • Mitsui O.S.K. Lines reports earnings boost from de facto Strait of Hormuz closure
  • Freight rates for essential cargo shipments rise due to rerouting
  • CFO Kazuya Hamazaki cites increased operational costs and demand
  • Family-controlled Japanese firms underperformed peers amid governance reforms
  • Founder-led companies face scrutiny over governance lapses, e.g., Nidec's leadership changes
  • Long-term planning and quick decisions no longer offset governance risks
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  • DSS begins public offering of common stock to raise capital
  • Terms and pricing not disclosed in initial announcement
  • Proceeds to fund unspecified growth initiatives
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  • Q4 EPS $0.45 vs. $0.12 estimate, beating by $0.33
  • Revenue $117.5M vs. $115M estimate, topping expectations
  • Outdoor gear demand remains resilient despite broader retail headwinds
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  • Lululemon prioritizing 'away from body' pants over form-fitting leggings due to shifting consumer preferences
  • Adobe stock declines as analysts cite weak fashion assortment and outlook concerns
  • Shift reflects broader trend away from tight-fitting athleisure toward looser styles

Thai Markets 16

  • Younger investors, particularly Millennials, are increasingly seeking unit-linked policies that combine life protection with investment opportunities.
  • A growing focus on legacy planning by wealthy clients also drives demand for policies offering greater investment flexibility and higher life coverage.
  • Low interest rates make traditional life insurance less attractive for insurers, prompting customers to consider unit-linked products for potentially higher long-term returns.
  • Allianz Ayudhya expects its unit-linked sales to grow 45% to approximately 886 million baht this year, supported by its agency channel.
  • Thailand's life insurance penetration remains relatively low at 3.6% of GDP, indicating significant growth potential compared to regional markets like Malaysia and Singapore.
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  • Thailand's high-speed railway project, designed to connect three central airports, has been stalled for years.
  • The company leading the $7 billion venture is seeking to terminate its contract with the Thai government.
  • This move introduces further uncertainty regarding the future of the long-delayed infrastructure project.

Other 3

  • Hong Kong mother opts for post-partum care in Shenzhen due to lower costs and better availability
  • Shenzhen facility offers 24/7 newborn care, enabling faster recovery for mothers
  • Trend reflects rising healthcare costs and wait times in Hong Kong
  • The BepiColombo mission is on its final approach to Mercury, concluding an eight-year interplanetary voyage.
  • The robotic science mission, costing nearly $2 billion, is led by the European Space Agency with Japanese and US contributions.
  • Launched in 2018, it utilized plasma propulsion and flybys of Earth, Venus, and Mercury to reach its destination.
  • The next encounter with Mercury will allow the planet's gravity to capture the spacecraft into orbit.
  • Reaching and orbiting Mercury requires more energy (delta-v) than sending a probe to fly by Pluto.
  • Queen Elizabeth's School (QE Barnet), a top British state-funded school, has opened fee-paying branches.
  • New campuses are located near New Delhi (Gurugram) and in Dubai.
  • The expansion targets wealthy families, leveraging the school's strong academic record and 'superpremium' programs.
  • Offerings include A-level results, music, sports, and soccer coaching links with Real Madrid.