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Risk-off, driven by BOJ rate hike expectations and rising global tensions

  1. Shein files Hong Kong IPO prospectus, CXMT to raise $8.5bn in Shanghai debut
  2. BOJ rate hike expectations rise as yen nears four-decade low and oil prices top $100
  3. US sanctions on Iran undermine long‑term strategy to limit China’s influence in the Middle East
  4. South Korea Trading Giant Tests Blockchain for Trade Receivables
  5. Indonesia passes law to create first international finance centre, focusing on legal certainty over tax incentives

Markets 11

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  • Shein is set to publish its first Hong Kong IPO filing this week after regulator approval.
  • CXMT will list on Shanghai's STAR Market, targeting more than $8.54 bn in proceeds, the biggest Chinese semiconductor IPO.
  • Hefei‑owned investors hold roughly 30% of CXMT, potentially worth several tens of billions of dollars if the stock jumps.
  • Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will deliver a State of the Nation address amid political and economic challenges.

Macro/Economy 3

  • Indonesia's parliament approved the finance centre law on Tuesday.
  • The hub will emphasize enforceable contracts and predictable regulation rather than tax breaks.
  • Analysts say investors now prioritize legal certainty and regulatory stability over fiscal incentives.
  • The initiative aims to position Indonesia among Asia's leading international financial centres.
  • Japan has pledged $550 billion in planned investments in the United States.
  • Joshua Walker, soon to be chief international officer of the U.S. Chamber, urges a flexible, mutually‑beneficial framework.
  • Walker warns the arrangement must survive beyond the current administration to remain viable.

Central Banks 2

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  • Yen slides toward its weakest level since the early 1980s, approaching a four-decade low
  • Crude oil prices creep above $100 per barrel, reviving inflation concerns
  • Market pricing shifts toward an earlier BOJ rate hike than previously forecast
  • Middle East tensions reignite worries about imported inflation in Japan

Energy/Oil 2

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  • Iran‑India tensions could disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for India's imports.
  • India has increased crude purchases from Russia and the United States by several percent to offset potential shortfalls.
  • Domestic refining capacity utilization sits around 85%, limiting buffer against supply shocks.
  • Global crude prices have risen roughly 2% over the past week, adding cost pressure on Indian imports.

Gold/Metals 11

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  • China imposes new export restrictions targeting U.S. rare‑earth magnet production planned for 2027
  • REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is assembling a full North American rare‑earth value chain, from feedstock to permanent magnets
  • The policy could tighten U.S. rare‑earth supply and lift domestic prices, reshaping the market

Crypto 10

Geopolitics 15

  • US sanctions on Iran threaten the India‑backed Chabahar port, a key alternative trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
  • Chabahar was designed to counter China‑operated Gwadar port in Pakistan, limiting Beijing’s regional foothold.
  • The erosion of this asset undermines the United States’ decades‑long strategy to contain China’s influence in the Middle East.
  • Diminishing cooperation between Washington and India over Chabahar could shift regional trade dynamics toward Chinese dominance.
  • Approval rating dropped 10 points to 58% in the latest Nikkei/TV Tokyo poll
  • First sub‑60% reading since Takaichi took office in October
  • Disapproval among independents rose above 50% in the same poll

Tech/AI 11

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  • POSCO International tokenizes live trade receivables on Injective blockchain with LG CNS
  • Aims to speed up payments between global subsidiaries and reduce reconciliation times
  • South Korea's growing corporate adoption of blockchain in trade finance and asset tokenization
  • Autonomous AI agents are now able to launch cyberattacks without human intervention
  • A recent intrusion spread across a network in just 27 seconds
  • Experts stress multilayered defenses to contain rapid AI-driven attacks

Companies 2

  • Mitsui Fudosan will set up a physical AI hub in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan
  • Center will unite Japanese and Taiwanese firms to develop next‑generation semiconductor technologies for robots, industrial equipment and automobiles
  • Location chosen for proximity to TSMC's Kumamoto manufacturing base
  • Business-casual shorts sales in Japan surge amid record heat
  • Sanyo Shokai reports 20% excess over its shorts sales goal
  • Apparel brands launch new short styles for office use
  • Trend reflects adaptation to hotter Japanese summers

Thai Markets 6

Other 1

  • Market-style eateries are emerging in residential neighborhoods of Bangkok
  • Venues combine dining with coworking and social areas for locals
  • They target residents without nearby cafes or bars near train stations