◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. BRICS Future Uncertain Amid Post-War Global Order
  2. Oil Exports Rise Through Hormuz After US-Iran Deal · 2 sources
  3. Anglo American and Codelco agree to unlock $5 bn of copper production · 2 sources
  4. EBRD Facilitates First Cross-Border Risk Sharing Loan Between Kyrgyz Bank and Uzbek Business
  5. ECB Report: Limited Progress on Euro Adoption for Five EU Non-Euro Area Members Since 2024

Markets 2

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  • Oil prices continue to drop, extending recent slump
  • Tech sector under pressure, with Micron down for a second consecutive day
  • Micron rebounds after hours, posting a modest gain
  • Roughly 25% of life insurers with stakes in private-credit funds also lend to those funds, according to Clearwater Analytics.
  • The dual role signals insurers are expanding beyond investment to direct financing in the private credit market.
  • Lending by insurers provides an additional capital source for private-credit funds, potentially deepening market liquidity.

Macro/Economy 8

  • A Kyrgyz bank, Demir Bank, signed a loan agreement with Uzbek gym chain Ozone Fitness LLC, under the EBRD's Risk Sharing Facility (RSF).
  • This marks the first time the EBRD's RSF program has facilitated an international financing agreement, deemed a 'significant milestone in regional cooperation'.
  • The EBRD's RSF shares transaction risk, providing up to 65% direct funding or guarantees for partner bank sub-loans.
  • While the EBRD signed 31 domestic RSF agreements worth 28.5 million euro in Central Asia and Mongolia in 2025, this is the first cross-border deal.
  • The deal demonstrates the potential for financial institutions in one Central Asian country to support businesses in another, fostering deeper regional economic ties.
  • Limited economic convergence progress observed since 2024 for Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden, despite economic resilience to external shocks.
  • Mixed inflation trends; Hungary, Poland, and Romania recorded 12-month average inflation rates above the 2.7% reference value.
  • Fiscal situations deteriorated in most countries, with Hungary, Poland, and Romania exceeding the 3% of GDP deficit reference value in 2025.
  • None of the currencies participate in ERM II, and some experienced sizeable fluctuations against the euro.
  • Legislation in all five countries is not fully compatible with the legal requirements for euro adoption.
  • Bank of Japan released preliminary Flow of Funds accounts for Q1 2026 (PDF 672KB).
  • Retroactive revision applied to data from Q1 2005 onward, updating source data and estimation methods.
  • Revision largely mirrors the planned update announced on May 25, 2026.
  • Federal government reviewing national interest designation for two northern transport projects
  • Combined project cost estimated at C$2 billion (about US$2 billion)
  • Mackenzie Valley Highway and Grays Bay Road & Port aim to improve access to remote resource regions
  • Designation could speed up permitting, funding and boost northern resource development
  • 99.9% of U.S. firms have fewer than 500 employees and have contributed 61% of net new jobs since 1995
  • Nearly 50% of small employer firms reported using AI, with 71% noting productivity gains
  • 2025 Small Business Credit Survey marks 10 years of national coverage and expanded data scope
  • Total factor productivity shifted from negative growth (pre‑2013) to positive rates, narrowing Spain's 12‑point productivity gap with the euro area.
  • Around one‑third of the 12‑point gap has been recovered since 2013, driven by improved capital and labour allocation.
  • Credit is increasingly directed to more productive firms, especially SMEs and micro‑enterprises, reducing indebtedness and boosting own‑fund ratios.
  • The central bank proposes simplifying prudential rules into two broad buffers (micro‑ and macro‑prudential) and adopting a more proportional supervisory approach.
  • Nature‑positive transition could generate up to $4.3 trn annually and 232 million jobs in Asia‑Pacific by 2030
  • Bank Negara Malaysia reports 54% of loans to sectors highly dependent on ecosystem services and 36% to sectors with high nature impact
  • Visit Malaysia 2026 aims for RM329 billion in tourism receipts from eco‑tourism
  • Physical risks such as water supply disruptions, flooding and declining fish stocks pose financial stability concerns
  • Financial institutions urged to assess nature dependence, impact and related risks to build resilient portfolios
  • U.S. officials say future trade will rely on bilateral deals, sidelining WTO MFN principle.
  • Washington will use tariffs, export controls and rules of origin to manage Chinese-linked supply chains in ASEAN.
  • ASEAN faces heightened scrutiny as the U.S. expands Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity in the region.
  • The shift to "managed trade" pushes ASEAN to accelerate customs digitization and origin‑verification to retain its trade hub role.

Central Banks 6

  • All 32 banks stayed above minimum CET1 requirements, with aggregate capital falling only 1.6 percentage points
  • Banks would absorb over $708 billion in loan losses under the hypothetical severe recession scenario
  • Projected losses include $200 billion in credit‑card, $160 billion in commercial‑industrial, and $75 billion in commercial‑real‑estate loans
  • Scenario assumed a 39% drop in commercial real‑estate prices, 30% fall in house prices, and unemployment peaking at 10%
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  • Dollar index gains 0.5% as markets react to easing geopolitical tensions
  • US 10-year yields fall 4bps to 3.84% despite hawkish Fed tone
  • Fed's policy divergence from other major central banks widens
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  • SNB kept the policy rate unchanged at 0%
  • Discount on sight deposits above the threshold stays at 0.25 percentage points
  • SNB signals increased willingness to intervene in the foreign‑exchange market to curb franc appreciation
  • Recent inflation rose on higher energy prices, while medium‑term inflation pressure remains unchanged
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  • PBOC will narrow the short‑term rate corridor to 50 basis points and set the ad‑hoc repo band at 7‑day reverse repo +/- 25 bps
  • A new RMB repo facility will be offered to foreign central banks, international financial organisations and sovereign wealth funds
  • Offshore RMB/FX trading pilot launched in Shanghai FTZ with ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BCOM and CITIC Bank participation
  • Contingent liquidity backstop for non‑bank financial institutions under market stress will be explored via swap operations
  • Action plan to develop offshore finance in Shanghai International Financial Center will roll out step‑by‑step
  • Around 2,500 of the 3,300 firms supervised by the Central Bank of Ireland are retail intermediaries.
  • A new Consumer Protection Code strengthens best‑interest duties, digital design, and conflict‑of‑interest management.
  • The Savings and Investments Union promotes Personal Investment Accounts to mobilise household savings for productive investment.
  • The Central Bank pledged to complete 21 items on its simplification roadmap within the set timelines.
  • OECD 2026 report flags rising online fraud and digital exclusion as key consumer risks in the digital finance era.
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  • Icelandic króna becomes the fifth currency on the Eurosystem's TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) system.
  • The ECB‑Seðlabanki Íslands agreement will take effect in 2028.
  • Existing TIPS currencies: euro, Swedish krona, Danish krone; Norwegian krone also slated for 2028.
  • Goal is to improve payment security, efficiency and align Iceland with SEPA standards.

Energy/Oil 5

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  • Oil tankers with 35 million barrels have exited the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Iran deal
  • Confirmed oil shipments through Hormuz have risen to 4.8 million barrels per day
  • Exports remain below prewar levels, but highest since February 28 attack
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  • WTI closed at $70.34, hitting a low of $69.63, first sub‑$70 level since March 2.
  • Brent settled at $73.74, down 4.3%, its lowest since before the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israel war‑Iran launch.
  • Oil prices fell ~4% on Wednesday as tankers moved through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply‑disruption concerns.
  • President Trump urged DOJ to investigate gasoline pricing, claiming consumers are being “gouged.”
  • Over 11,000 seafarers are set to exit the Persian Gulf as the IMO confirms safety guarantees for Hormuz navigation.
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  • Oil prices slipped below $75 per barrel, Brent under $74, lowest since Iran conflict began.
  • Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 55 vessels, moving over 17 million barrels of oil.
  • JPMorgan cuts its 2026 Brent forecast to $64 per barrel and upgrades the energy sector to overweight.
  • Chevron signs a 20‑year natural‑gas deal with Microsoft for a Texas data center, linking AI and energy demand.
  • 10‑year Treasury yields hover around 4.5%, raising rate‑risk concerns for marginal energy projects.
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  • Commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels, 7% below the five-year average.
  • U.S. refineries operated at 96.1% capacity, processing 17.1 million b/d of crude oil, down 81,000 b/d from the prior week.
  • Crude oil imports rose by 436,000 b/d to 5.6 million b/d, though the four-week average is 4% below year-ago levels.
  • Gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels, while implied demand decreased by 3% year-over-year.
  • Distillate inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels, with implied demand up 3% year-over-year.
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  • The Strait of Hormuz closure caused a $3.36 billion monthly increase in ASEAN's energy import bill, exposing high dependence on Middle East crude (55% of imports).
  • The crisis prompted a rapid return to fossil fuels; Vietnam's coal-fired generation rose 44% MoM, and Thailand reactivated decommissioned coal units.
  • Governments deployed fiscal measures like fuel subsidies (Malaysia, Philippines) and price controls (Indonesia, Thailand) to manage consumer impact.
  • Despite setbacks, the energy transition continued with new initiatives, including Thailand's revised rooftop solar policy and Indonesia's 1.2 GW solar tender.
  • Long-term solutions like the ASEAN Power Grid face substantial funding gaps, with only $2 billion invested in interconnectors over five decades against a $27 billion need by 2040.

Gold/Metals 4

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  • Anglo American and Chile's state miner Codelco sign joint development pact for Los Bronces and Andina mines
  • Agreement targets at least $5 billion of new copper projects
  • Combined plan expected to boost copper output and extend mine lifespans
  • Partnership could bolster supply as global copper demand rises
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  • Gold has entered a sharp selloff amid a challenging macro environment
  • BofA suggests the dip creates a potential entry point for investors
  • Patience may be required for the metal to recover from current pressures
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  • Endurance Gold (EDG/ENDGF) discovered high-grade gold mineralization beyond the current resource at the Reliance project.
  • The step-out intercepts are located in southern British Columbia, expanding the company's Bridge River mining district footprint.
  • The find bolsters Endurance Gold's strategy to increase resource size and may support future financing or acquisition interest.
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  • Nova Scotia family uncovered a hidden gold cache valued at over $30,000
  • Cache discovered at Cape D’Or during search for the Great Canadian Treasure Hunt $1M prize
  • Gold find adds to the $1M grand prize pursuit, highlighting the hunt's lucrative potential

Crypto 4

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  • Bitcoin fell to $59,060, near $59K, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a 13‑month peak.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows and MicroStrategy added only 520 BTC, its lowest weekly intake in 18 months.
  • Oil prices slipped below $74 per barrel and gold fell under $4,000, dampening demand for inflation‑hedge assets.
  • US unemployment benefit claims dropped by 4,000, supporting expectations of higher‑for‑long interest rates.
  • Judge George Daniels set trial start date for Michelle Bond on Nov. 9, 2024.
  • Bond faces four campaign finance violation charges linked to alleged $400,000 FTX fund misuse.
  • Her husband, former FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, is serving a 90‑month prison sentence after a 2024 plea deal.
  • The case is among the final criminal proceedings stemming from FTX's 2022 bankruptcy.
  • Kalshi filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court challenging Illinois SB 3019, which takes effect on July 1
  • The law mandates licensing for prediction market platforms and adds a 0.2% tax on crypto transactions
  • Kalshi claims the state rule conflicts with CFTC authority and would cause irreparable harm if complied with
  • The case adds to ongoing federal‑state disputes over prediction markets, similar to challenges in Kentucky
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  • HYPE down 22% from its $75 all‑time high, trading near $60
  • Key support identified between $50 and $54; a close below $53 would mark first bearish daily close this year
  • Spot cumulative volume delta remains negative at roughly $95 million, while open interest dropped to $1.73 billion from $2.2 billion
  • Derivatives CVD sits near –$389 million, indicating reduced leveraged activity

Geopolitics 10

  • India's BRICS presidency faces challenges in maintaining cohesion among member states
  • BRICS Plus expansion may exacerbate internal divisions
  • Group's New Development Bank and BRICS Pay challenge the Bretton Woods system
  • Bangladesh and Malaysia agreed to revise the labor cooperation MoU and sign a new one
  • Both countries aim to advance the free trade agreement by 2027 and establish a Joint Business Council
  • Bangladesh secured Malaysia's support for its bid to become a Sectoral Dialogue Partner of ASEAN
  • China's Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying met with Japanese lawmaker Hashimoto Gaku in Beijing, marking the first formal talks since diplomatic tensions escalated in autumn 2025.
  • The meeting did not produce breakthroughs, but both sides signaled a shared willingness to work toward improving relations despite unresolved disagreements.
  • China's approach to compartmentalizing economic cooperation from political disputes may indicate a broader strategy to maintain engagement with Japan's business community.
  • Japan-China relations have deteriorated since November 2025, with little prospect of improvement before late 2027 due to Chinese political changes.
  • China's foreign policy, aiming for 'great rejuvenation' by 2049 and opposing the U.S.-led order, positions Japan as a target for structural criticism.
  • Stable U.S.-China relations allow Beijing to adopt a tougher stance on U.S. allies like Japan, especially regarding Taiwan and security policies.
  • A stark power disparity, with China's economy now over four times Japan's, and the integration of economic security, reduces China's impetus for normalization.
  • Domestic political conditions in both countries, marked by anti-China sentiment in Japan and intensified anti-Japan propaganda in China, hinder dialogue.
  • Xi Jinping has systematically purged the patronage network of former Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Qishan, extending purges beyond the military.
  • Wang Qishan, a former economic czar and anti-corruption chief, is under virtual house arrest and unreferenced in official media since Oct 2023.
  • Four of Wang's former personal secretaries, including Li Xiaohong, have been investigated or purged on serious corruption charges.
  • Over ten senior executives at China Construction Bank and several at China International Capital Corporation, firms Wang helped lead/found, have also been targeted.
  • The purges are viewed as Xi's effort to eliminate potential obstacles to his ambition for a fourth term and consolidate unrivaled power ahead of the 21st Party Congress.
  • Xi Jinping's early June visit to North Korea saw Kim Jong Un reaffirm support for the One China principle, heightening Taiwan conflict risk.
  • U.S. defense production is strained, with thousands of subcontractors now overseas and a $1 billion investment in L3Harris rocket‑motor facilities to plug supply gaps.
  • The Defense Production Act was invoked on June 17, highlighting shortages of rocket motors, igniters, guidance systems and air‑defense interceptors after the Iran conflict.
  • Offshoring has left the U.S. reliant on foreign sources for critical minerals, electronics and metals, many routed through China.
  • AI‑driven automation firms like Hadrian aim to rebuild domestic defense manufacturing capacity with autonomous factories.
  • Eldik Bank and ABank terminated relationships with about 131 companies over sanctions risk.
  • The banks are investigating an additional 80 firms and flagged roughly 17,000 transactions as suspicious.
  • The actions follow the EU's 20th anti‑circumvention sanctions package targeting Kyrgyzstan for re‑exporting goods to Russia.
  • Kyrgyz Ministry of Justice recently ordered 50 locally registered companies to close, and over 30 Kyrgyz firms are on sanctions lists.
  • Russia's share of new ASEAN defence contracts fell from nearly 20% (2017‑2021) to below 3% (2022‑2024).
  • Suppliers outside the US‑China‑Russia trio now account for roughly 85% of the region's contract value.
  • The Philippines cancelled a 16‑helicopter Russian deal and received $100 million US financing for Black Hawk replacements.
  • Vietnam is shifting to alternatives, including a $245 million K9 howitzer purchase from South Korea and a $100 million used C‑130 deal with the US.
  • Malaysia signed 2023 contracts for 18 South Korean FA‑50 fighters and three Turkish ANKA drones, moving away from Russian Su‑30s.
  • Pax Silica extends Biden-era programs (MSP, IPEF, CHIPS4) with a more transactional Trump‑style approach to secure semiconductor and critical mineral partnerships.
  • Indo‑Pacific countries join to diversify supply chains, attract investment and maintain strategic flexibility amid U.S.–China competition.
  • The initiative targets China’s rare‑earth and mineral dominance, seeking alternative supply routes to protect U.S. defense and industrial sectors.
  • Ongoing Iran‑U.S. conflict highlights risks of relying on geopolitically volatile regions for supply‑chain resilience.
  • Russian military setbacks have reduced Moscow's influence in Mali and Niger.
  • A power vacuum is spurring competition among local and foreign actors for Sahel resource control.
  • Heightened security instability may impact mining projects and investment outlook in the region.

Tech/AI 5

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  • White House ordered Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models worldwide on June 12
  • SK Telecom announced a gigawatt‑scale AI cloud partnership with Nvidia on June 7, five days earlier
  • Anthropic has spent nearly $5 million on U.S. lobbying since 2023 targeting AI export rules
  • SK Telecom earned roughly $1.9 million in Chinese revenue in 2024, showing minimal China exposure
  • Beijing plans a $295 billion five‑year AI data‑center program, limiting Korean firms’ access to China
  • OpenAI and Broadcom announced a new chip named Jalapeño for LLM inference in data centers.
  • The chip is positioned as the first generation of a long‑term hardware roadmap for AI workloads.
  • Both companies plan to deploy the chip at large‑scale data centers to improve inference efficiency.
  • NASA ended development of a new SLS upper-stage adapter after 13 years of work
  • The canceled program had accrued roughly $500 million in costs
  • Administrator Jared Isaacman said the hardware was not essential for Artemis lunar landing and faced delays
  • Authorities and tech firms coordinated to takedown the Amadey malware‑as‑a‑service platform.
  • The operation also disabled the StealC infostealer‑as‑a‑service, which harvested credentials and crypto wallets.
  • Microsoft used AI analysis to identify shared infrastructure linking the two tools, enabling simultaneous disruption.
  • The disrupted cybercrime chain had generated over $47 million in ransom and fraud payments.
  • Amadey has been active since at least 2018 and was observed abusing GitHub in 2023.
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  • Amazon leverages its incumbent cloud infrastructure to stay ahead in AI services
  • Google distinguishes itself with innovative AI research and product launches
  • Both firms dominate AI market share among large technology companies

Companies 10

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  • Agility to merge with SPAC, ArcLight Clean Transition Corp., in a $2.5 billion deal
  • Company behind humanoid robot Digit to list on NYSE under ticker 'AGI'
  • Agility's valuation to reach $4.5 billion post-merger
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  • Micron posted earnings that beat analysts' expectations
  • The stock jumped, pushing Nasdaq futures higher
  • Management highlighted AI-driven demand for memory chips as a growth catalyst
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  • JPMorgan and Bank of America both met all stress‑test thresholds
  • Federal Reserve disclosed test parameters in advance last year
  • Results indicate robust capital buffers for the two banks
  • SK Hynix will debut ADRs on the Nasdaq, its first US listing.
  • Micron reported earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations.
  • Cerebras Systems' stock slipped below its IPO price after a recent drop.
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  • Shares fell to a 17‑month low following the release of the Enchi project PFS
  • Prefeasibility study indicated weaker-than-expected economics for the Ghana project
  • Analysts highlight concerns over cash‑flow projections and grade assumptions
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  • Hyundai and SK Engineering & Construction to support ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge project
  • Project to produce lithium and boron in Nevada, USA
  • ioneer's shares gain after securing support from South Korean groups
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  • Micron under scrutiny
  • Seven stocks that made a single decision, now struggling
  • Lagging behind peers
  • Base price announced at $24,950 for Slate's entry-level electric pickup.
  • Estimated driving range increased from 180 miles to 205 miles (330 km).
  • Tow capacity doubled from 1,000 lbs to 2,000 lbs; payload raised to 1,550 lbs.
  • Launch follows a year of tongue-in-cheek marketing and limited pre-release testing.
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  • Disney agrees to a $50 million settlement with YouTube TV and DirecTV streaming subscribers.
  • The lawsuit claimed Disney forced OTT services to raise prices by bundling ESPN in base packages.
  • The class action was filed in November 2022 in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.
  • Settlement resolves claims of alleged anticompetitive agreements with live‑TV providers.
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  • Li-FT Power secures option to acquire Renard diamond mine for $12M
  • Move aims to reduce development costs and accelerate lithium production
  • Renard mine to be repurposed as lithium hub

Other 5

  • GTA VI will launch at $80, exceeding the $70 price point of recent AAA titles
  • Physical edition will contain only a download code, no disc
  • Pre‑order sales begin on June 25
  • HHS concluded the hantavirus response on June 24 after a 42‑day monitoring period.
  • No American passengers were confirmed infected; cases fell from 11 to 10.
  • The response faced criticism for lacking explanation and imposing strict quarantines.
  • Cork acts as a regulator of oxygen diffusion into wine bottles
  • Limited oxygen ingress supports gradual aging, smoothing tannins and enhancing aroma
  • Excess oxygen accelerates oxidation, leading to brown color and off‑flavors
  • The article pertains to a 'Treasure Hunt' event conducted in Nova Scotia.
  • The Nova Scotia Regional Prize for this hunt was discovered prior to the article's publication.
  • Nova Scotia is referred to as 'Canada's first mining frontier' within the context of the treasure hunt.
  • Article consists solely of a cookie consent notice with no substantive information.
  • No details on Megan Greene's CV or the Treasury Select Committee questionnaire are provided.
  • No market, economic, or policy implications are discussed.