- U.S. crude oil futures fell 3.9% to $86.51 per barrel
- Brent futures lost 4.2% to $89.15 per barrel
- Trump expects U.S. and Iran to sign deal in Europe within days
2026-06-11
Energy/Oil 2
- Commercial ship traffic through Hormuz could increase to 20-30 vessels daily if US and Iran reach a stable agreement
- Current trickle of 5-10 ships transiting the strait daily may rise above 20 vessels if a credible deal is reached
- Oil tanker fleet has been dispersed globally, but freight rates will attract tankers back to the Middle East
Central Banks 5
- ECB hikes key rates by 25bps to 2.25% (deposit), 2.40% (refinancing), 2.65% (marginal lending) effective 17 Jun 2026
- 2026 inflation forecast revised up to 3.0% (from prior) due to higher energy prices; growth cut to 0.8%
- ECB signals data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to rate path
- APP/PEPP portfolios continue measured decline; Transmission Protection Instrument remains available
Read on ECB Press ↗
also: ECB Press
- ECB raises key interest rate to 2.25% with a quarter-point hike
- Inflation forecasts revised to 3% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2% in 2028
- Economic growth forecasts revised downward to 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028
- ECB expected to hike interest rates by 25bps to 2.25%
- Headline euro zone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, driven by 10.9% yoy energy price surge
- Market pricing in 3 ECB rate hikes for the rest of the year
- Eligibility extended to high-quality government-linked debt (AA-) from G10/Australian regional/local governments and policy banks as Level B collateral from 19 Jun 2026
- Minimum credit rating for G10 agency bonds and US GSEs (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae) reduced from AAA to AA-
- Corporate bonds from thermal coal miners excluded; all corporate bonds now classified solely as Level B collateral from 31 Oct 2026
- Index-linked sovereign debt haircuts separated from conventional gilts; new schedules effective 19 Jun 2026
- Corporate bond haircuts reduced but sector-specific add-ons introduced for net-zero transition risks from 31 Oct 2026
- Fed and other agencies adopt final rule establishing data standards for legal entity identifiers
- Rule mirrors August 2024 proposal with minor changes after public feedback
- Implements the Financial Data Transparency Act of 2022 to improve regulatory data interoperability
Macro/Economy 1
- Wholesale prices rose 1.1% in May, exceeding the 0.7% consensus estimate.
- Energy prices surged 10.7%, with gasoline prices up 23.4% at the wholesale level.
- Core PPI accelerated 0.4% in May, with the 12-month rate at 5.1% excluding trade services.
Geopolitics 1
- US strikes in Iran target military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites
- Kuwait closes airspace due to 'Iranian aggressions' and intercepts 'hostile aerial targets'
- Israel warns of launches from Lebanon toward northern Israel communities
Other 1
- India's media and entertainment market valued at $32 billion in 2025, growing at 9%.
- Generative AI adoption accelerating in Indian filmmaking, reducing production timelines and costs.
- AI tools used in Indian productions include Midjourney, Adobe Firefly, and Google's AI Studio.