Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Energy/Oil 3

  • US military secretly helped 200 commercial ships and over 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Operation credited with keeping oil prices around $90 per barrel instead of surging above $200
  • Ship traffic through Hormuz still well below prewar levels, with 20% of global petroleum supplies lost
  • U.S. crude futures up 2.07% to $90.03 per barrel
  • Brent futures up 1.8% to $93.10 per barrel
  • Trump warned Iran will "pay the price" and pledged further attacks
  • Rystad Energy cites 11.8 million bpd shutdown, 1 billion barrels lost, with each month potentially erasing 350 million barrels
  • BP’s third CEO and chairman departure in under 3 years sparks investor scrutiny over board oversight and governance
  • Activist shareholder ACCR calls leadership selection process 'dysfunctional' and questions board’s ability to challenge strategy
  • BP refocusing on core oil/gas business under new CEO Meg O’Neill, with upstream/downstream restructuring underway

Central Banks 1

  • ECB opposes deregulation framed as modernization, citing risks like Amsterdam Trade Bank collapse (2022) as evidence of non-financial risks triggering financial crises
  • Current capital requirements do not constrain lending; ECB aims to maintain bank resilience without raising requirements, per research and pandemic-era easing
  • EU financial fragmentation persists due to lack of banking union, single market, and capital markets union; cross-border mergers face political resistance despite long-term growth benefits

Macro/Economy 2

  • Annual inflation rate rose 4.2% in May, highest in three years
  • Core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago
  • Energy prices surged 3.9%, contributing to inflation
  • Core inflation rate rose 2.9% YoY, matching estimates but lower than April's 3.1%
  • Headline CPI increased 4.2% YoY, matching estimates but highest since April 2023
  • Market sees CPI as a welcome print, with FedWatch Tool odds of rate hikes unchanged at 40%