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TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. Oil prices fall after U.S. Energy secretary says Hormuz ship traffic is increasing · 2 sources
  2. May Inflation Numbers Expected to Exceed 4%
  3. Taiwan's Indigenous Peoples Fear History Repeating Itself Amid China Threat
  4. Xi and Kim Strengthen 'Strategic Relationship' with Socialist Principles
  5. India's growth outlook dims as foreign investors exit amid policy lag and energy costs

Macro/Economy 5

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  • CPI expected to show 4.2% annual rate, highest since April 2023
  • Core prices projected to post 2.9% annual reading
  • Energy costs driving inflation, but core prices also rising
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  • Foreign portfolio investors sold $29.5B in Indian equities YTD, after $18.9B in 2024, citing weaker consumption and higher energy costs
  • RBI raised inflation forecast to 5.1% for FY2026-27 and cut growth outlook to 6.6% from 6.9%
  • Net FDI near all-time low as repatriation outpaces inflows, while rupee weakens amid rising crude imports (>85% of needs)
  • Vehicle outbound trips rose 15% YoY to 1.87 million in the first four months of 2026.
  • Retail turnover grew 23% YoY Jan‑Mar 2026, while supermarket sales fell 5.2% YoY.
  • Government injected 400 million patacas (~$50 m) in a consumption campaign ending June 18.
  • SME credit limits rose 22% to 9.5 billion patacas in 2025; restaurants received 6.8% of new loans.
  • Macau’s restaurant count slipped to 4,930 at end‑2024, a decline of 49 outlets year‑on‑year.
  • May corporate goods price index data published
  • Index tracks price changes for goods sold by corporations
  • May figures may influence inflation expectations and policy outlook
  • April average contract interest rate on loans released by the statistical agency
  • Average discount rate on loans for April disclosed in the same report
  • Figures provide insight into credit market conditions for the month

Central Banks 5

  • Results from Fed's annual bank stress test to be released on June 24
  • 32 large banks subject to stress test with severe global recession scenario
  • Stress test results will not impact large bank capital requirements
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  • RBA cash rate has risen by a total of 75 basis points in 2026 to curb inflation
  • Headline inflation is projected to peak above 4.5% in the June quarter
  • Underlying inflation is expected to stay above the 2‑3% target range until mid‑2027
  • GDP growth is forecast to slow and unemployment to rise modestly, though still below pre‑pandemic levels
  • Cash usage in Germany fell from 74% in 2017 to 51% in 2023.
  • EU plans a digital euro pilot in the second half of 2027, with possible rollout by 2029 pending legislation.
  • The digital euro will be non‑interest‑bearing, have holding limits, and support offline payments for resilience.
  • Around two‑thirds of euro‑area card payments are processed by non‑EU schemes, driving a push for strategic autonomy.
  • Barr cautions that loosening bank regulations could raise systemic risk despite short‑term economic boost
  • He cites past crises – Great Depression, 1980s S&L collapse, 2008 financial crisis – as evidence of long‑term costs
  • Balancing growth and safety is essential; excessive risk‑taking by banks may threaten households and businesses
  • Regulatory weakening is already underway, prompting concerns over future financial stability
  • The Riksbank keeps a high threshold before launching asset purchase programmes.
  • Recent global inflation spikes forced policy rates down to near‑zero levels.
  • Achieving the 2% inflation target has been difficult, prompting reliance on unconventional tools.
  • Central banks increasingly use non‑standard measures after rates fell to very low levels.

Energy/Oil 3

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  • U.S. crude oil futures declined 3.4% to $88.20 per barrel
  • Brent futures lost 2.97% to settle at $91.45
  • Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is 'rising very meaningfully'
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  • Governments announce plans to increase strategic petroleum reserves.
  • Larger emergency crude stockpiles aim to reduce vulnerability to supply shocks.
  • Higher reserve levels are expected to keep WTI and Brent prices elevated.
  • The move may tighten global oil supply, supporting price outlooks.
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  • Iraq plans to triple Kurdistan‑Turkey pipeline shipments from 220,000 bpd to 770,000 bpd
  • UAE’s West‑East pipeline to Fujairah aims to double ADNOC export capacity and start by 2027
  • Hormuz‑transit oil fell to 10 million barrels in April, down from 93 million barrels pre‑war
  • Combined alternative pipeline capacity in the region is 3.5‑5.5 mb/d, far below the ~20 mb/d previously moving through Hormuz
  • Saudi East‑West pipeline attacks and Fujairah drone strikes highlight security risks to alternative routes

Geopolitics 8

  • Taiwan's Indigenous peoples, including the Sakizaya, fear being targeted by China in a potential conflict
  • The Sakizaya were nearly wiped out by the Qing dynasty in 1878, and their leader was executed in a brutal manner
  • Taiwan's Indigenous peoples have not fully healed from their colonial past and demand greater autonomy and recognition
  • China and North Korea agree to strengthen bilateral relations with socialist principles
  • Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un reaffirm support for each other's core interests, including 'one-China' principle
  • China de facto recognizes North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, potentially allowing future nuclear tests
  • India invited to G7 summit as guest for over 12 summits since 2003 despite strategic autonomy stance
  • G7 seeks India’s 1.46B population, 7.7% growth, and Global South access to offset declining share of global GDP
  • India’s Indo-Pacific role and independent agency make it valuable despite policy divergences with Western powers
  • Ballot shortages affected 50 of 14,288 polling stations in June 3 local elections, with 22 stations unable to complete voting
  • Conservative PPP demands investigation, special counsel, and resignation of all NEC commissioners over alleged irregularities
  • Polling shows 20% of Koreans believe 2024 general election was rigged, rising to 40% among young conservatives
  • Mongolia may diversify trade routes via North Korea’s Rajin port, reducing reliance on China’s Tianjin port
  • Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project stalled due to geopolitical instability and China’s hesitation
  • Mongolia positioned as neutral diplomatic actor amid Russia-China-North Korea cooperation in Northeast Asia
  • Tumen River development project aims to enhance regional connectivity via rail and Arctic routes
  • Kazakhstan declined $1B Board of Peace membership fee, contributing $7B collectively with 8 other nations
  • U.S.-Kazakh trade and rare earth mineral joint ventures discussed during Tokayev-Trump envoy meeting
  • Kazakhstan joined Abraham Accords, invited to G20 as guest amid warming U.S. relations
  • Gen Z protest movement 'Cockroach Janta Party' (CJP) emerged after Chief Justice's 'cockroach' remark, gaining 22M+ Instagram followers
  • CJP organized first major rally in Delhi on June 6 against education exam leaks and unemployment, drawing thousands
  • Indian government blocked CJP's social media handles and website, citing 'national security threat', escalating youth outrage
  • Prince Abdul Mateen, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah’s son, appointed foreign minister in cabinet reshuffle
  • Three coordinating ministers created to improve policy integration under Wawasan Brunei 2035 plan
  • Four female ministers appointed, highest representation since independence

Companies 2

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  • VinFast delivered 197,000 EVs in 2025, 89% sold in Vietnam and 11% internationally; 26% of sales to related parties
  • Cumulative losses hit $14.5B with negative equity of $3.6B; cash on hand only $293M
  • Plans to sell two Vietnamese factories to shift $7B debt off books, but foreign market penetration remains weak
  • Kalshi will require users to disclose their employer affiliations for specific prediction market contracts.
  • The policy is designed to curb potential insider trading and enhance market integrity.
  • The rule is slated for rollout later this year, pending regulatory approval.

Other 1

  • At least 32 people confirmed dead and 134 injured after a 7.8 magnitude quake struck Mindanao.
  • Epicenter was about 20 km off Sarangani province; tremors felt up to 420 km away in Manado, Indonesia.
  • Around 6,200 schools closed and a large building collapsed in General Santos; airport operations were briefly suspended.
  • More than 200 aftershocks recorded, the strongest at magnitude 6.7; tsunami warnings issued for nine provinces and lifted after six hours.