Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Energy/Oil 2

  • Iran's threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could slash oil supplies to an already disrupted market.
  • The Strait is a crucial trade choke point, with oil flows nearly doubling to 7.2 million barrels per day in April.
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to close the Strait if Israel did not halt strikes in Gaza and Lebanon.
  • Fossil fuels now seen as intermittent and uncertain, similar to renewables
  • Renewables have become constant with advancements in battery technology
  • Energy experts call for a swift transition to homegrown clean electricity

Central Banks 2

  • RBI kept benchmark rate at 5.25% as expected, citing cautious stance due to geopolitical and energy risks
  • Raised FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% (+50bps) while lowering growth outlook to 6.6% (from 6.9%)
  • Rupee down 6% YTD to 95.78/USD as energy imports and outflows pressure currency; gold duties raised to curb demand
  • Bank of England and FCA agree to maintain effective cooperation on financial market infrastructure supervision
  • Annual review of memorandum of understanding confirms high degree of coordination and no material duplication
  • Authorities to address suggestions from firms to improve supervision efficiency

Markets 1

  • Apple to unveil overhauled Siri with standalone chatbot-style app and multi-step commands
  • WWDC to test whether Apple Intelligence can become a real iPhone upgrade driver
  • Tim Cook's legacy at stake as he prepares to hand over to John Ternus as CEO