- WTI futures fell 3.1% to $93.04 per barrel.
- Brent futures dropped 2.8% to $95.03 per barrel.
- Price decline tied to report that President Trump is reluctant to restart full-scale war with Iran.
- Ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains in place despite recent clashes.
2026-06-04
Energy/Oil 1
Central Banks 2
- India's central bank may raise interest rates to anchor the rupee, which has hit record lows.
- Economists polled by CNBC expect a 25-50 basis point rate hike.
- Inflation concerns, fueled by higher energy costs and El Niño forecasts, may prompt the RBI to act.
- Bank of England launched a co-creation working group to gather industry input on synchronisation service design, with meetings every three weeks
- Key design topics include settlement models, earmark lifecycle, transaction timing, and governance frameworks for synchronisation operators
- Regulatory status of synchronisation operators and legal relationships with account holders remain open design questions
Macro/Economy 3
- Taiwan's market cap surpassed India's, becoming the world's fifth-largest equity market
- South Korea overtook India in market capitalization within a week
- India's market capitalization has fallen 10% year-to-date, while Taiwan's and South Korea's have surged 60% and 130% respectively
- Economists forecast May nonfarm payrolls +80,000, down from April's +115,000 and recent 150,000‑month average.
- Unemployment rate projected to remain around 4.3%, with some forecasts edging to 4.4%.
- May planned layoffs rise 16% to 97,006, the highest since 2020; AI‑related cuts hit 38,242, a record level.
- Fed likely to keep rates on hold at its June meeting, with markets pricing near‑zero chance of a change.
- Long-term unemployed (27+ weeks) reached over 1.8 million, a 45% increase from 2019 and 55% rise from 2023.
- Long-term unemployed earn about 32% less than employed peers, versus a 9% cut for short-term unemployed.
- One in four jobless workers is now long-term unemployed, highlighting weakness in the labor market.
- Consumer spending risk rises as long-term unemployed cut back on expenses, potentially dampening GDP growth.
Geopolitics 3
- US Trade Representative proposes tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies
- Tariffs would target countries failing to ban goods made with forced labor, including China, EU, and Japan
- 10% duty rate proposed for economies with partial prohibition, 12.5% for those without
- Trump signals willingness to meet Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei if a nuclear deal is struck
- U.S.-Iran war enters fourth month with Strait of Hormuz closed, disrupting ~20% of global oil flows
- Gasoline prices average $4.24/gal in U.S. amid ongoing tensions and supply risks
- Nearly 40 ships have exited the Persian Gulf through Hormuz over the past 3 weeks
- US Navy provides limited assurances against incoming threats, but does not escort commercial ships
- Ship transits remain below prewar levels, with May traffic at its lowest point
Other 1
- Women hold ~80% of French public hospital roles but only ~25% of director positions
- Legal reforms (e.g., 2023 50% gender quota for senior civil service) show progress but face implementation gaps
- First promotion to manager sees women 7% less likely to advance than men, compounding career disparities