- Taiwan's market cap surpasses India's, becoming the world's fifth-largest equity market
- South Korea overtakes India in market capitalization within a week
- India's equity market cap has fallen 10% year-to-date, while Korea's Kospi 200 has gained over 130%
June 4, 2026
▲ 2▼ 4– 15
Markets 1
Macro/Economy 7
- US proposes tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies over forced labor concerns
- 60 countries, including China, EU, and Japan, failed to ban goods made with forced labor
- Tariffs will likely be softened by exemptions on electronics and AI-related products
- Economists expect 80,000 jobs added in May, down from 150,000 average over prior two months
- Some Wall Street voices predict catch-up for labor market, with risks to downside for headline number
- Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates on hold, with no chance of move at June 16-17 meeting
- Long-term unemployed in U.S. now exceed 1.8 million, up 45% from 2019 and 55% from 2023
- Long-term unemployed face 32% lower pay after a decade vs. those briefly unemployed (9% cut)
- Parental job loss increases child's grade repetition risk by 15%, per working paper
- Canada's financial system remained stable through a challenging year, with banks strengthening shock‑absorption capacity.
- Stock and corporate debt valuations are high relative to historical norms, raising risk of a sharp correction.
- Hedge fund leverage in sovereign debt markets is rising, potentially amplifying stress if market conditions tighten.
- Household debt remains high relative to income, but payment delinquencies have stabilized; mortgage renewal risk expected to fade by H2 2027.
- Emerging risks include AI‑driven cyber threats and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, such as the Middle East conflict and US‑Canada trade ties.
- Payments have become highly concentrated, with a few global providers handling most European transactions.
- Geopolitical uncertainty—highlighted by Russia's war in Ukraine and recent US sanctions—adds new risk layers to payment systems.
- Finland's instant payment solution Pikis will be transferred to Siirto Brand, with services launching next month to enhance resilience.
- Over the past two decades, digitalisation sped up payments but also created vulnerabilities that now require public‑backed alternatives.
- Women hold ~80% of French public hospital staff roles but only ~25% of director positions
- First promotion to manager sees women 7% less likely to advance vs men in corporate America
- Women spend ~2x more unpaid care hours than men in advanced economies, per OECD data
- France ranks 4th globally in legal rights for women’s economic participation post-2023 reforms
- Pipeline narrowing starts early due to availability and promotability biases in career progression
- Office rents in Japan decline about 1.4% per year for roughly 25 years after construction, then depreciation slows.
- Large office properties depreciate slightly faster than small‑to‑medium ones; large assets stabilize once the rate slows.
- Renovations can reverse depreciation by up to 8.2 percentage points, lasting about 16 years with an average mitigation of 5.4 points.
Central Banks 10
- Since early spring 2026, heightened Middle East tension has lifted Dubai crude prices sharply.
- Oil price rise is comparable to past shocks (1970s crises, mid‑2000s expansion, 2022 Ukraine war) but smaller than the first oil crisis.
- Ueda stresses the need for accurate assessment of Japan's economic activity and prices amid supply‑shock risks.
- The BOJ will consider these inflationary pressures when shaping future monetary‑policy decisions.
- Federal funds rate remains the Fed's primary tool for influencing borrowing costs and inflation
- The FOMC has revised its monetary policy framework twice, reverting to basic principles in 2025
- Bowman assesses real GDP and private domestic final purchases to gauge aggregate demand
- She compares the headline unemployment rate to her estimate of the natural rate to judge labor‑market tightness
- Average payroll gains over several months are used to smooth volatility in employment data
- HKMA highlighted Connect schemes (Stock, Bond, Swap, Wealth Management) launched since 2014 to deepen China-HK financial integration.
- Multi-currency RTGS links with Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, plus CSD connections to Euroclear and Clearstream, set for further internationalisation and a digital asset platform later this year.
- Payment Connect links Hong Kong's Faster Payment System with Mainland China's Internet Banking Payment System, following the 2023 FPS‑PromptPay QR payment link with Thailand.
- Fintech 2030 strategy introduces 40 initiatives; Project Ensemble now in pilot (EnsembleTX) to enable tokenised deposits and digital asset transactions.
- Productivity growth has swung from 1970s slowdowns to 1990s‑2000s booms, reshaping inflation and interest‑rate dynamics
- The 1970s slowdown contributed to stagflation, while the late‑1990s boom helped keep inflation low despite strong growth
- AI‑driven advances could spark a new productivity acceleration, challenging real‑time policy decisions
- Mid‑2000s productivity slowdown helped lower the natural rate of interest, affecting current monetary‑policy stance
- BOJ released May monetary base figures, indicating a slight month‑on‑month rise
- The monetary base stood at roughly ¥1.2 trillion, showing a modest increase
- BOJ's net purchases of government bonds remained stable, supporting liquidity
- Analysts view the data as consistent with the bank's accommodative stance
- HKMA began DLT research in 2016, releasing whitepapers in 2016 and 2017
- Three core roles defined: issue tokenised central bank money, set innovation guardrails, build interoperable infrastructure
- Distinguishes crypto-assets, tokenised real assets and tokenised money such as e‑HKD CBDC
- SFC advancing virtual asset regulations for crypto‑assets like Bitcoin
- India's inflation stays within the RBI's tolerance band, supporting macro stability
- Non‑performing assets have fallen to multi‑decade lows, bolstering bank balance sheets
- Capital buffers and governance are being reinforced while growth remains strong
- The Asset Quality Review post‑2015 highlighted hidden stress, prompting tighter supervision
- Central banks have long issued and protected money, but the digital payment landscape is rapidly expanding.
- Cipollone warns that if central bank money does not evolve, it could lose relevance and increase financial system fragmentation.
- He advocates extending central bank money into new technological environments while maintaining safety and uniformity.
- Licensing processing times for well‑prepared fintech applications cut by up to 50% versus previous years
- Feedback rounds capped at three, down from longer cycles previously used
- DNB will publish a concise "Fintech handbook" to guide applicants on licensing expectations
- Supervision remains proportionate, focusing on risk and scale while maintaining baseline standards
- Bank of England launches co-creation working group for live synchronisation service design, with first meeting held on April 30, 2026
- Key design topics include earmark lifecycle, settlement models, transaction timing, and governance frameworks for synchronisation operators
- Regulatory status of synchronisation operators under review by UK authorities, with risk mitigation approaches to be clarified
Energy/Oil 1
- WTI futures declined 3.1% to $93.04 per barrel
- Brent futures lost 2.8% to settle at $95.03 per barrel
- Trump reportedly reluctant to resume full-scale war with Iran
Geopolitics 2
- Trump said he would be "honored" to meet Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if a deal ends the war.
- The US‑Iran conflict is in its fourth month and has kept the Strait of Hormuz, carrying ~20% of world oil, closed.
- US gasoline prices rose to about $4.24 per gallon as oil markets react to the uncertain cease‑fire.
- Iranian negotiators warned they could halt talks and shut the strait again, while Trump claimed Iran agreed not to seek a nuclear weapon.
- Nearly 40 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks.
- Ship operators submit transit plans to the U.S. Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping group in Bahrain.
- U.S. forces are not escorting ships but are communicating with them; recent Iran‑U.S. clashes briefly lifted oil prices.
- Traffic through Hormuz remains far below pre‑war levels, the lowest since May.
- Iran launched drones and missiles targeting civilian vessels and regional sites, prompting U.S. defensive strikes.
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