Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Central Banks 4

  • Euro's share in international currency use grows to around 20%
  • Euro-denominated international debt issuance rises by 30% in 2025
  • ECB highlights need to reinforce foundations of euro's global potential
  • Federal bank regulatory agencies remove reputation risk references from interagency documents
  • Action aims to prevent misuse of reputation risk in supervision
  • Updates focus on material financial risks and clarity in supervisory decision making
  • Euro area expanded to 21 members since 1999, now used by 350M+ Europeans
  • Convergence criteria (price stability, fiscal discipline, long-term rates, ERM II) ensure durable monetary union stability
  • ERM II participation acts as policy coordination exercise, not just a waiting room for euro adoption
  • Public consultation launched to select UK wildlife for £5, £10, £20, £50 notes; shortlist includes 3 categories of native species
  • Nature theme chosen for 2026-2027 redesign, replacing historical figures; wildlife received 60% support in prior consultation
  • Final decision by Governor Andrew Bailey by end-2026; new notes to feature anti-counterfeiting tech and monarch portraits

Macro/Economy 2

  • Euro zone inflation rose to 3.2% in May, driven by 10.9% energy price growth
  • Services inflation rose to 3.5% and food prices cooled to 2%
  • Markets price in 94% chance of ECB hiking interest rate by 25bps next week
  • Job openings increased to 7.6 million in April, up 731,000 from March and the highest since May 2024.
  • The job openings rate rose to 4.6% of the labor force, surpassing the number of unemployed workers.
  • Hiring fell to 5.12 million, a drop of 419,000 month‑over‑month, lowering the hiring rate to 3.2%.
  • Quits fell to just under 3 million, the lowest level since August 2020, while layoffs edged down to 1.7 million.
  • Fed is expected to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting, with labor market data closely watched.