◆ Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE
TODAY IN 30 SECONDS
  1. ECB warns Iran war scars amplify stagflation fears, crimp eurozone retail spending
  2. Iran war drives U.S. household energy costs up $450 since February
  3. Fed Vice Chair Bowman outlines framework for monetary policy decisions
  4. Japan publishes schedule for outright JGB purchases for April-June 2026
  5. April payment and settlement statistics released

Macro/Economy 2

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  • Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose 2.5pp in March 2026 after Iran war began, per ECB survey
  • Growth expectations fell 1.2pp; oil prices still 30% above pre-war levels despite 20% May drop
  • ECB expected to hike rates by 25bps in June amid stagflation risks and cautious retail spending
  • Payment system data for April published, covering transaction counts and total values
  • Monthly trends show the payment volume and settlement activity compared with previous months
  • The statistics are used as an indicator of domestic economic activity and cash flow

Central Banks 2

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  • Federal funds rate remains the primary tool, influencing borrowing costs and asset prices
  • Policy decisions weigh real GDP growth and private domestic final purchases to gauge demand
  • Unemployment rate and payroll employment trends assess labor market tightness
  • Wage growth, vacancy data and hidden unemployment metrics inform inflation risk assessment
  • FOMC has revised its monetary policy framework twice since 2018, reverting to basic principles last year
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  • The Ministry of Finance releases the Q2 2026 schedule for outright purchases of Japanese Government Bonds.
  • Purchases will be conducted via a competitive auction method throughout April, May and June.
  • The schedule outlines monthly purchase volumes and timing as part of the BOJ's monetary policy framework.

Energy/Oil 1

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  • Average U.S. household spent $447.19 extra on gas/diesel/jet fuel since Feb 28 Iran conflict began
  • Gasoline prices up 47% to $4.39/gal; diesel up 47% to $5.52/gal; airline fares rose 20% YoY in April
  • Total consumer energy cost burden nears $60B; Goldman Sachs warns impact to persist through 2026
  • Personal savings rate fell to 2.6% in April; credit card debt hit $1.25T, near all-time high