Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Macro/Economy 2

  • Energy prices remain above pre-war levels, with Brent crude at $96 and WTI at $90.21
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns of stagflationary shock for Asian economies
  • Goolsbee concerned about AI-driven equity price increases fueling overheating economy
  • Core PCE inflation held at 3.3% YoY in April, matching expectations and signaling persistent price pressures
  • Headline PCE inflation rose 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, driven by energy and services costs
  • Q1 GDP growth revised down to 1.6% annualized, below expectations, while durable goods orders surged 7.9% in April

Central Banks 2

  • Fed’s Kashkari states inflation remains top priority as U.S. CPI at 3.8% in April, well above 2% target
  • Labor market described as 'decent shape' but inflation risks unanchored expectations if left unchecked
  • AI productivity gains could sustain higher rates but short-term policy impact remains unclear
  • Fed banned Crystal Moore (Atlantic Union Bank) for CARES Act loan fraud
  • Fed banned Jesse Romo (Frost Bank) for embezzling bank funds
  • Enforcement actions highlight Fed’s scrutiny of bank fraud post-pandemic

Energy/Oil 1

  • U.S. power sector gas consumption forecast at 43.7 Bcf/d for summer 2024‑2025, unchanged from last year
  • That level is 4% above the 2021‑2025 five‑year summer average
  • Summer 2027 gas consumption for power generation projected to rise 6% to 46.1 Bcf/d, a new record beating 2024 by 3%
  • Overall U.S. electricity demand expected to increase 2% this summer, offset by higher renewable generation