Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Macro/Economy 1

  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 44.8 in May, below April's 49.8 and near June 2022 trough
  • 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8% from 4.7% as oil supply risks from Strait of Hormuz persist
  • Fed signals reluctance to cut rates amid rising inflation expectations and 10Y/30Y Treasury yields at multi-year highs

Central Banks 1

  • Kevin Warsh officially sworn in as Fed chairman and Board of Governors member on May 22, 2026
  • FOMC unanimously selected Warsh as its chairman, succeeding prior leadership
  • Warsh's term as chairman runs until May 21, 2030; Board member term until January 31, 2040

Energy/Oil 1

  • Nationwide average regular gasoline price hit $4.49/gal on May 18, up 42% ($1.32) from a year ago.
  • West Coast prices averaged $5.61/gal, the highest among regions, while Gulf Coast remained lowest at $3.95/gal.
  • Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions saw price spikes to $4.40/gal and $4.59/gal, up 45% and 47% year‑over‑year, amid refinery maintenance outages.
  • Crude oil price pressure stems from a de‑facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. SPR releases.
  • AAA expects 39.1 million travelers by car over Memorial Day weekend, sustaining demand for gasoline.

Companies 1

  • FDIC and Fed reviewed 2025 living wills from 8 largest US banks and 56 foreign banks
  • No shortcomings or deficiencies identified in any submission
  • Derivatives weaknesses from 2023 plans at BofA, Goldman, JPMorgan, and Citi resolved