- CPI inflation projected at 6% for Q2, up from prior 2.7% estimate amid rising energy prices
- Full-year CPI forecast raised to 3.5% (headline) and 2.9% (core), up from 2.6% previously
- Fed's 2% inflation target seen missed through 2027, with 10-year average PCE at 2.4%
May 18, 2026
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Macro/Economy 2
- BOJ published sectoral current account data for April
- Overall current account showed a surplus/deficit (specific figure not disclosed)
- Breakdown includes primary, secondary and tertiary sector contributions
Central Banks 2
- Ed Yardeni predicts 25bps Fed rate hike likely in July amid bond vigilante pressure
- 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.138%, highest in nearly a year, forcing Fed credibility concerns
- Market odds for July hike currently at 4.2%, far below Yardeni's call as inflation pressures mount
- GDP growth expected to stay moderate but decelerate as crude oil prices rise
- CPI inflation forecast at 2.5‑3.0% YoY in FY2026, easing to 2.0‑2.5% in FY2027 and ~2% in FY2028
- Underlying CPI to gradually approach the 2% price‑stability target
- Bank of Japan to keep raising the policy rate while monitoring Middle‑East oil price risks
- Risks include potential upward inflation pressure affecting financial and FX markets
Crypto 1
- FCA and BoE seek industry feedback on tokenisation rules for prudential treatment, collateral, and settlement by July 2026
- BoE proposes near-24/7 RTGS/CHAPS settlement hours to support cross-border payments and tokenisation
- PRA updates prudential guidance for tokenised assets, stablecoins, and e-money, aligning with market developments
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