Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Macro/Economy 1

  • CPI inflation projected at 6% for Q2, up from prior 2.7% estimate amid rising energy prices
  • Full-year CPI forecast raised to 3.5% (headline) and 2.9% (core), up from 2.6% previously
  • Fed's 2% inflation target seen missed through 2027, with 10-year average PCE at 2.4%

Central Banks 1

  • Ed Yardeni predicts 25bps Fed rate hike likely in July amid bond vigilante pressure
  • 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.138%, highest in nearly a year, forcing Fed credibility concerns
  • Market odds for July hike currently at 4.2%, far below Yardeni's call as inflation pressures mount

Crypto 1

  • FCA and BoE seek industry feedback on tokenisation rules for prudential treatment, collateral, and settlement by July 2026
  • BoE proposes near-24/7 RTGS/CHAPS settlement hours to support cross-border payments and tokenisation
  • PRA updates prudential guidance for tokenised assets, stablecoins, and e-money, aligning with market developments