Daily Global-Macro Brief LIVE

Central Banks 3

  • 51% probability of a December Fed rate hike
  • 60% probability of a January rate hike
  • 71% probability of a March rate hike
  • Powell appointed chair pro tempore until Kevin Warsh's official swearing-in
  • Transition follows standard Fed practice during chair transitions
  • Warsh's appointment pending, no timeline specified for swearing-in
  • Fed Board does not object to United Texas Bank conversion to national bank
  • Conversion follows Dodd-Frank Act requirements
  • OCC submitted supervisory plan to address enforcement actions

Energy/Oil 1

  • Industrial natural gas use averaged 23.6 Bcf/d in 2025, up 1% from the 2023 record of 23.4 Bcf/d.
  • Forecast predicts consumption will continue rising, hitting new highs in 2026 and 2027.
  • Growth is linked to a modest increase in the natural‑gas‑weighted manufacturing index.

Tech/AI 1

  • Frontier AI models already surpass skilled hackers in cyber capability, amplifying financial stability risks
  • Regulated firms urged to bolster cyber resilience, governance, and third-party risk management amid AI-driven threats
  • UK authorities to monitor frontier AI developments via CMORG and issue further guidance in 2026

Companies 2

  • Fed approves Stephen M. Calk 2025 Trust's application to become a savings and loan holding company
  • Trust to acquire National Bancorp Holdings, Inc., and indirectly The Federal Savings Bank
  • Approval required under U.S. banking regulations
  • Fed ended 2023 cease-and-desist orders against UBS, Credit Suisse AG, and its US subsidiaries on May 12, 2026
  • Termination follows completion of post-merger integration and compliance reviews
  • No further regulatory penalties or restrictions imposed on the entities